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GBP

28 Feb 2023

Inflation continues to surprise

• Eurozone inflation surprise. Eurozone bond yields jumped up after a run of higher than expected inflation prints.• USD still firm. The USD remains near recent highs, with relative interest rate expectations still in favour of the US.• AUD risk events. Q4 GDP, January inflation, and China PMIs are released today. AUD intra-day volatility should pick up, but will the underlying trend change? Interest rate expectations and bond markets remain in focus, though overnight attention was in Europe rather than the US. Bond yields across the Eurozone rose ~5-8bps as markets re-priced how high the ECB policy rate could end...

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27 Feb 2023

Treading water

• Holding steady. A quiet start to the week with US bond yields easing back slightly and US equities edging a little higher.• GBP & EUR bounce. UK and EU agreed a new deal on Northern Ireland’s trading arrangements. But GBP continues to face structural headwinds.• Retail sales in focus. AUD has consolidated. After softening into year-end consensus is looking for Australian retail sales to bounce back in January. A quiet start to the week. The adjustment in expectations around how high the US Fed could lift interest rates this cycle and the flow through to bonds have driven markets...

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23 Feb 2023

Markets Enter Winter Freeze After Fed Minutes

Markets are struggling to dig themselves out of the snow this morning as a steady tightening in financial conditions threatens to cool global demand growth and weigh on corporate earnings. Yields inched higher and the dollar climbed after a record of the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting at the beginning of the month, released yesterday, showed a “few” non-voters lobbying for a half-percentage-point interest rate hike, even as a quarter-point move garnered unanimous support from the core group. According to the minutes, “A number of participants observed that a policy stance that proved to be insufficiently restrictive could halt recent progress...

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22 Feb 2023

Fire. Aim. Ready.

Investors are in a “sell first, ask questions later” kind of mood. Bond and equity markets suffered their worst day of the year yesterday amid speculation we have arrived at a “good as it gets” moment for the US economy, and risk aversion remains well entrenched – the dollar and yen are outperforming their rivals on safe-haven demand, commodity prices are down, and yields are up sharply. Consumer bellwethers Home Depot and Walmart issued disappointing outlooks, suggesting that prices could continue to increase even as sales volumes fall through the remainder of the year. Home Depot projected flat revenues for...

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21 Feb 2023

Rates rethink

• Higher bond yields. Stronger services PMI data in Europe and the US has seen interest rate markets adjust further. This has weighed on risk sentiment.• USD firm. The lift in US yields is supporting the USD. AUD has drifted back. Locally, wages data is released today.• AUD/NZD in focus. RBNZ announcement today. Will the RBNZ stay the course and hike by 50bps, or will it hold back given the cyclone impacts? A negative night for markets with investor sentiment shaken by another jump in bond yields as positive economic data fueled expectations central banks, particularly the US Fed, have...

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