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GBP

07 Mar 2023

Pre-Powell Caution Fades

The dollar is back on the defensive, yields are slipping, and equity futures are climbing as market participants bet that risks associated with today’s Federal Reserve Congressional testimony are largely priced in. Commodity-linked currencies are up slightly in a modest reversal from yesterday’s China-related selloff, while safe havens like the yen and Swiss franc are seeing softer demand. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate for a tenth consecutive time, but dropped a reference to further increases, hinting only that “further tightening” would be needed. Australian rates have climbed a cumulative 350 basis points since last May, and...

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06 Mar 2023

Currencies Stabilize As Pivotal Week Begins

Investors are bracing for a momentous week, with Jerome Powell’s Congressional testimony, three major central bank meetings, and the February non-farm payrolls report combining to set the stage for erratic price action in currency markets. The dollar is climbing, yields are ticking lower, and the euro and pound are tightly rangebound. Commodity-linked currencies sold off over the weekend as China’s leadership unveiled a more cautious growth agenda than had been expected. Work documents released during the National Party Congress outlined plans to increase state outlays and expand the budget deficit, but Beijing set its headline gross domestic product target at...

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02 Mar 2023

Rates still adjusting

• Higher yields. Markets continue to adjust interest rate expectations higher with inflation pressures showing limited signs of abating.• USD rebound. The larger lift in US bond yields has boosted the USD. Equity markets are looking increasingly complacent to the macro landscape.• AUD crosscurrents. Relative interest rate differentials are a AUD headwind. But the high level of commodity prices is an underlying support. The upswing in bond yields has continued with markets coming around to the view that interest rates will need to keep moving higher and stay at very elevated levels for some time to slow growth and (hopefully)...

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01 Mar 2023

Bond yields still rising

• Higher bond yields. Inflation pressures and ‘hawkish’ rhetoric continues to fuel expectations of ongoing rate hikes by the major central banks.• China reopening. Large lift in the PMIs on the back of the reopening. This has supported commodities. But it may add to inflation down the track.• AUD range bound. Positive China developments has been offset by sluggish domestic growth and signs inflation has passed its peak. The upswing in global bond yields has continued, with inflation concerns front-of-mind for investors. Positive risk sentiment in yesterday’s Asian trade generated by the large lift in the China PMIs as the...

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01 Mar 2023

China Reopening Hopes Lift Markets

March is coming in like a lion, with risk appetite rebounding across asset classes on evidence of a stronger-than-expected recovery in the Chinese economy. The US dollar is in retreat as investors pile into the euro on hopes for stronger exports, and as they buy emerging market currencies on an expected rise in raw materials demand. Major North American equity bourses are setting up for a stronger open even as Treasury yields tick higher. The Canadian dollar is gaining, but continues to lag a broader improvement in the commodity complex. The China reopening trade roared back to life last night...

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