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GBP

20 Aug 2023

Pausing for breath

• Calmer markets. US bond yields, the S&P500, & the USD consolidated on Friday, though underlying risk sentiment still looks somewhat fragile.• Global events. European/US PMIs (Weds), week ending speeches by Fed Chair Powell & ECB President Lagarde, & China developments in focus this week.• AUD consolidating. AUD treading water near its 2023 lows. There are no local events scheduled this week. AUD will be driven by offshore news. After a busy few sessions markets consolidated on Friday with little new news coming through to move the needle or alter the fragile state of risk sentiment. The US S&P500 was...

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18 Aug 2023

Volatility creeps higher with US yields, keeping safe havens bid

Financial markets are facing headwinds this morning from higher interest rates and a slowing Chinese economy. Equity futures are setting up for a lower open, US Treasury yields are inching lower after again challenging multi-decade highs during yesterday’s session, and commodity prices are trading sideways as markets simultaneously downgrade Chinese demand forecasts and raise stimulus expectations. Foreign exchange markets are trading on a mixed footing, with risk-sensitive currencies fighting an increase in implied volatility expectations – partly seasonal, partly rates-driven, and partly China-related – even as domestic yields play catch up with the United States North America Expectations are rising ahead...

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17 Aug 2023

Bond yields & China in focus

• Bond moves. Yields have continued to rise. The US 10-yr is at its highest since late-2007. This has exerted more pressure on equities. USD remains firm.• CNY focus. Trends in China & CNY remain in focus. Policymakers in China appear to be becoming uncomfortable with the CNY weakness.• AU jobs. Labour market data undershot expectations. Unemployment rose in July, extending the AUD weakness. But is the AUD starting to find a base? Developments in bond markets and China remain front of mind. Against a backdrop of light news and economic dataflow bond yields have risen further. Concerns that rates...

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16 Aug 2023

Negative vibes

• Wall of worry. China worries, sticky UK inflation & a hawkish tone in the Fed minutes weighed on risk sentiment, pushed up US yields & supported the USD.• AUD pressure. The backdrop has exerted more pressure on the AUD. The AUD is in rarefied air. Since 2015 AUD/USD has only been lower in ~2% of trading days.• AU jobs. July labour force report released today. The labour market is a lagging indicator. Consensus is looking for unemployment to tick up slightly to 3.6%. Familiar themes have continued to drive markets. On the one hand concerns about the state of...

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16 Aug 2023

Markets see clouds in the US economy’s silver lining

“In the beginning the Universe was created,” said Douglas Adams in the Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy. “This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move”. Markets seem to be taking a similar view on yesterday’s hotter-than-anticipated US retail sales report, with an aversion to risk becoming more pronounced as investors grapple with the prospect of higher long-term rates. The dollar is holding its gains and equity futures are setting up for a weaker open even as two- and ten-year Treasury yields fade from their highs. Risk-sensitive units like the Australian and...

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