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Market Briefing: Dollar Falls on Broad-Based Currency Market Reversal

The dollar is selling off and most major currency pairs are experiencing sharp trend reversals as investors bet on a less aggressive rate posture from the Federal Reserve. In a week defined by evidence of a slowing economy – consumer confidence, home prices, and manufacturing gauges all came in below expectations – many are reappraising Friday’s “stepping down” comments from the San Francisco Fed’s Mary Daly, and traders are now positioning for a slightly more cautious message from central bankers at next week’s meeting. We’re not confident such a dramatic shift in tone is coming before year end, but stretched...

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Market Briefing: Dollar Trades Sideways on Market Cross-Currents

The dollar is turning in a mixed performance this morning as Treasury yields slip and major currency pairs move in diametrically opposed directions. Ten-year yields are holding around 4.17 percent and the trade-weighted greenback is back to levels that prevailed at the beginning of the month, with the big European units inching upward even as Asia falls. The pound continues to ascend, building on gains achieved over the weekend when Boris Johnson pulled out of the race to succeed Liz Truss as British prime minister. With Rishi Sunak now at the helm, markets expect some semblance of fiscal orthodoxy to...

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Market Briefing: US Yields Keep Climbing, Tightening Vise on Markets

As hopes for a policy “pivot” fade, US Treasury yields are continuing their inexorable ascent this morning. Equity markets look set to extend yesterday’s losses, commodities are coming under renewed pressure, and currency traders are buying the dollar once again. Terminal rate expectations are still rising. In a speech yesterday, the Philadelphia Fed’s Patrick Harker said “Given our frankly disappointing lack of progress on curtailing inflation, I expect we will be well above 4 percent by the end of the year,” and warned tightening would likely continue into 2023, saying “Sometime next year, we are going to stop hiking rates”....

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Market Wire: Truss Resigns, Pound Climbs

Liz Truss has resigned, making her the shortest-serving prime minister in British political history. In a statement given outside Downing Street, she said she had assumed office at a time of “great economic and international instability” and, given the political situation, was unable to deliver on her electoral mandate, saying “I cannot deliver the mandate on which I was elected by the Conservative Party”. Truss will remain prime minister until a new leader is selected within the next week. The pound climbed ahead of the news, and gilt yields are down slightly as markets position for a more fiscally-responsible administration...

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Market Briefing: UK Political Turmoil Continues, Yen Breaks 150, Dollar Climbs

The British pound is back on the defensive, weakening as political chaos and conflicting monetary policy messages sap demand for sterling-denominated assets. Prime Minister Liz Truss—now in power for all of 44 days—is under pressure to resign after firing one of her most senior ministers, receiving resignations from two more, and threatening others with disciplinary action if they failed to vote on party lines. A number of Ministers of Parliament have submitted no confidence letters, and the chair of the 1922 Committee—which represents the views of party leaders—is reportedly meeting with Truss to discuss ways to move forward. The Bank...

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