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07 Sep 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Keeps Winning Reverse Beauty Contest

The dollar is continuing its untrammelled rise this morning, crushing its developed- and emerging-market peers alike as the US reprises its role as a rock in a sea of economic troubles. As Europe faces an energy shock, China slows, and falling commodity prices weigh on emerging market growth prospects, the American economy – with its voracious consumers, incredibly profitable corporate sector, and aggressively hawkish central bank – is drawing financial flows from the rest of the world, further widening performance gaps. The yen is trading near new post-1998 lows, ignoring fresh intervention warnings from the government. Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu...

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01 Sep 2022

Market Briefing: Goldilocks Flees as Central Bank Bears Return Home

Markets are extending losses after a protracted August selloff. Hopes for a “soft landing” are fading as central bankers systematically lift terminal rate forecasts and rhetorically demolish odds on a 2023 policy pivot – pushing monetary policy expectations firmly into economically-restrictive territory. Ten-year yields are back at early-June levels, and the two-year Treasury briefly hit 3.5 percent for the first time since 2007 yesterday. Equity futures are down, energy commodities are dropping, and the dollar is grinding higher against its major rivals. The Japanese yen is knocking on levels not seen since 1998 as rising US yields diminish its attractiveness...

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29 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Post-Powell Reaction Continues to Lift the Dollar

Risk-sensitive assets are tumbling and the trade-weighted dollar is pushing toward last month’s peak in the wake of Jerome Powell’s “higher for longer” message on Friday. In an elegantly brief and blunt speech at Jackson Hole, the Federal Reserve Chair said “restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time,” warning this would “bring some pain to households and businesses,” while acknowledging that the “historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy”. After a summer slumber, bears are reawakening. Equity futures are pointing to another day of selling, the ten-year Treasury yield is nudging 3.1...

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25 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Bulls Start Feeling A Little Hawkward

The greenback is retreating as bullish dollar sentiment softens ahead of tomorrow’s central bank meeting in Jackson Hole. Commodity-linked and high-beta currencies are climbing on the prospect of more stimulus from China, and the euro and pound are inching up on a broader sense of optimism – even as benchmark European energy prices break new records. Mr. Powell is expected to outline a policy path that takes rates into restrictive territory and keeps them there as the central bank responds to post-pandemic shifts in the global economy. In keeping with the academic nature of the conference, he is likely to...

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23 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Steamrolls Rivals Ahead of Powell Speech

Global markets are bowing before the almighty dollar once more as investors brace for Friday’s central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Every major US equity index ended yesterday in the red, commodities are down again, and risk-sensitive currencies are in retreat. Markets think Mr. Powell will assert the Federal Reserve’s intent to lift rates into restrictive territory – and keep them at those levels – in Friday’s speech. Terminal Fed Funds expectations have shot up from 3.25 percent in late July to 3.75 percent now, and implied rate cuts have fallen by more than a third as investors have...

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