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Market Briefing: Dollar Shows (Tentative) Signs of Exhaustion

The dollar bull is looking tired, but is not ready yet to keel over. With idiosyncratic issues hitting the yen and yuan, losses in the trade-weighted greenback still look relatively modest, but an improvement in global risk appetite is helping the pound, euro, and high-beta currencies inch higher ahead of the North American equity market open—and weakness could become more entrenched as signs of a maturing rate cycle begin to emerge against a sparse data backdrop. The pound is trading within a consolidative range, with yesterday’s wholesale reversal of the government’s fiscal plans continuing to offer support – even as...

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Market Briefing: Truss Turnabout Bolsters Sentiment

Risk-sensitive assets are staging a mild recovery this morning after the UK government said it would shelve a package of unfunded fiscal measures that had triggered alarm in gilt and global funding markets. Equity indices are setting up for a stronger open and the ten-year US Treasury yield is pushing back below 4 percent, providing relief across the financial system. The dollar is weaker, and commodity linked units are rising on the crosses as traders hesitantly tiptoe back into still-turbulent foreign exchange markets. The pound jumped and gilt yields fell after new chancellor Jeremy Hunt reversed virtually all of his...

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Market Briefing: Dollar Remains Strong Amid Quarter-End Rebalancing

The dollar is holding steady and Treasury yields are moving sideways as month- and quarter-end flows dominate price action in the foreign exchange markets. After an extraordinarily-tumultuous September, traders are betting the greenback’s safe haven attributes will remain in demand through early October, with other areas of the global economy suffering the repercussions of a rapid ramp in interest rates. The pound is trading above levels that prevailed before chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled his government’s tax and spending plans a week ago. The currency rallied this morning as the Bank of England bought long-term gilts and investors bet the government...

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Market Briefing: Markets Stabilize After Yesterday’s Whiplash-Inducing Session

Markets are calming, but remain distinctly depressed after yesterday’s extraordinarily-turbulent session. Ten-year British gilts were yielding more than 4.5 percent and their US equivalents were paying 4 percent before the Bank of England stepped in to “carry out temporary purchases” of long-term bonds, sending rates tumbling back to 4.2 and 3.7 percent, respectively. Trading in the pound remains highly volatile, with the cable interbank rate approaching 1.09 before tumbling this morning when Prime Minister Liz Truss doubled down on her government’s policies in a series of remarkably ill-informed interviews with local BBC radio stations. Asked if she would consider reversing...

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Market Briefing: Fear Grips Financial System as Dollar Climbs and Bank of England Intervenes

With American policymakers issuing this generation’s version of former Treasury Secretary John Connally’s 1971 “the dollar is our currency, but it’s your problem” speech, a surging greenback is crushing all of its major rivals and triggering turmoil across the global financial system. Speaking with reporters yesterday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said “with the United States moving faster than many other countries, we’re seeing upward pressure on the dollar and downward pressure on many other foreign currencies,” and “these kinds of developments — which represent a tightening in financial conditions — are part of what’s involved in addressing inflation”. White House...

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