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AUD

02 May 2023

Banking sector worries reemerge

• Risks reemerge. Renewed US banking sector concerns have weighed on risk sentiment. Bond yields, equities & oil prices fell overnight.• AUD volatility. AUD spiked after the ‘surprise’ RBA rate hike, but offshore developments have seen the AUD give back a lot of its gains.• US Fed in focus. Tomorrow’s US Fed meeting is the next major event. Another hike is expected. We think the Fed could push back on expectations rate cuts could start in H2. This could give the USD a boost. The relative calm across markets hasn’t lasted. Risk sentiment soured overnight as concerns about the US...

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02 May 2023

RBA: Once more, with feeling

A ‘pause’ doesn’t last as long as it used to. In a surprise to most analysts and interest rate markets, the RBA raised the cash rate by another 25bps at today’s meeting, taking it up to 3.85%. The move means that a cumulative 375bps worth of rate hikes have been delivered so far this cycle. As our chart shows, this is by far the most aggressive tightening cycle the RBA has unleashed for several decades. According to the RBA, inflation has “passed its peak” but at 7% it is “still too high and it will be some time yet before...

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01 May 2023

Will the RBA surprise?

• US yields rise. US bond yields jumped up overnight, supporting the USD Index. The US ISM manufacturing survey was a bit better than expected.• RBA in focus. We expect the RBA to keep the cash rate steady at 3.6%, however based on the tight labour market, we believe odds of a move may be a little higher than what markets are pricing.• AUD risks. A RBA ‘surprise’ would see the AUD spike higher, however the slowing global economy and outlook for another US Fed rate hike later this week are ongoing headwinds. Outside of a jump up in US...

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30 Apr 2023

All eyes on the central banks

• Mixed signals. Eurozone data undershoots, while the US Employment Cost Index indicates inflation pressures remain strong. China manufacturing PMI dips back into ‘contractionary’ territory.• Central banks in focus. US Fed and ECB expected to hike rates again later this week. We think there are ‘hawkish’ risks given the inflation pulse.• AUD & the RBA. We are forecasting the RBA to remain on hold once again. Weaker China data and diverging policy trends are AUD headwinds. A positive end to April for risk markets with US equity indices rising by 0.7-0.8% on Friday on the back of solid earnings reports,...

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27 Apr 2023

BoJ & US data in focus

• Improved sentiment. Equities & bond yields higher overnight. The more upbeat risk appetite has supported the AUD in otherwise quiet FX markets.• US data flow. Topline US GDP growth undershot forecasts, but this was because of inventories. Price measures remain high. The ECI & PCE deflator due tonight. The US Fed still has more work to do to tame inflation.• BoJ in focus. Inflation & wage pressures in Japan are building. It appears inevitable the BoJ shifts course. Could the first steps be taken today? Sentiment improved overnight, with equities and bond yields higher. In the US, the S&P500...

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