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AUD

25 Apr 2023

Dollar Advances Amid Renewed Banking Worries

Renewed concerns over the health of the global banking sector are driving investors toward safe havens this morning, lifting the dollar against its major counterparts. North American equity futures are setting up for a weaker open, Treasury yields are down, and currencies like the Canadian and Australian dollars are underperforming relative to the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Financial sector stocks began to weaken last night after First Republic Bank said it had lost more than $100 billion in deposits during the first quarter, forcing it to cut staff and reduce lending activity. Selling continued in the European session when UBS and...

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24 Apr 2023

Cross-Check: AUD/JPY – change is on the horizon

AUD/JPY has perked up a bit over the past few weeks, with the ~4% rebound since late-March helping push the pair back into positive territory for the year-to-date. In our view, the bounce back in AUD/JPY is unlikely to extend much further, at least not on a sustainable basis, and we would look to use any spikes back into the low- to mid-90s opportunistically. We think the unfolding macro environment is likely to see AUD/JPY fall back down to the mid-80’s over the coming months, largely as a reflection of JPY strength which we believe is likely to come about...

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23 Apr 2023

Service sector resilience

• Diverging trends. Business surveys show that manufacturing is slowing, but services are still strong. This suggests policy still isn’t tight enough.• BoJ surprise? This Friday’s BoJ meeting is the first for new Governor Ueda. Tweaks can’t be ruled out. A ‘surprise’ would ripple through FX markets.• AUD sluggish. Weaker global manufacturing momentum weighed on metals prices and the AUD. AU CPI inflation released on Wednesday. Risk sentiment improved on Friday. European and US equities posted some modest gains (S&P500 +0.1%, Eurostoxx50 +0.5%) and bond yields rebounded. The US 2-year bond yield rose ~8bps to 4.18%, and the 10-year ticked...

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20 Apr 2023

Growth concerns return

• Growth jitters. A run of weaker than expected data and ‘hawkish’ rhetoric from central bankers has generated renewed growth worries.• Shaky sentiment. Negative growth signals dampened risk appetite. US equities, bond yields, oil, and metals prices a bit lower overnight.• AUD lifts. Despite the backdrop AUD lifted a little. We doubt the move can be sustained. Looking ahead, May tends to be a negative month for the AUD. Growth concerns are back in focus following a string of weaker than anticipated data, cautious tone about the outlook in some corporate earnings results, and ‘hawkish’ rhetoric from central bank officials....

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19 Apr 2023

Global inflation trends

• Hot UK CPI. Higher than expected UK CPI boosted bond yields overnight. Markets are now factoring in a few more BoE rate hikes this year.• NZ inflation slows. NZ CPI came in below expectations. NZD dipped and AUD/NZD moved higher as markets question the RBNZ rate outlook.• AUD holding. AUD hovering just above $0.67. RBA review to be released today. US Fed speakers are also on the calendar over the next 24hrs. The rebound in global bond yields has continued, with Europe leading the way. Another hotter than expected UK CPI print, the only major economic data of note...

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