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AUD

Risk assets pause for breath as Fed pushback becomes more likely

Markets are turning more cautious after last week’s “melt-up” in risk assets, with the dollar climbing against its rivals, Treasury yields ticking higher, and equity markets beating a slow retreat. The British pound is holding near to a ten-month high against the euro and a 14-month peak against the dollar, supported by rising rate expectations. Following strong labour market and wage growth data, the latest inflation print, out tomorrow morning, is expected to show headline price growth easing only slightly in the the month of May, and the core measure is seen holding close to 6.8 percent in year-over-year terms. In response,...

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Shaky sentiment

• Negative vibes. US on holiday, but European equities dipped & bond yields rose. Hawkish central bank rhetoric was a factor.• China stimulus. Lack of an announcement by China on a stimulus package also weighed on sentiment. We think markets are too ‘bulled up’ about China stimulus.• AUD softer. AUD has given back a little ground. RBA meeting minutes released today. RBA’s Kent & Bullock also due to speak. With the US on holiday it was a relatively quiet night for markets, though risk appetite has been softer across those that were open. European equities dipped (EuroStoxx600 -1%), oil prices...

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Lofty heights

• Policy divergence. JPY continues to weaken with the BoJ’s stance continuing to diverge from the rest of the world. AUD near a multi-month high.• Fed talk. Chair Powell testifies to Congress this week. Markets still aren’t pricing in the Fed’s views. A shift up could give the USD some support.• China stimulus. More stimulus to support the faltering recovery is anticipated, but we think China may not meet the markets seemingly lofty thinking. US markets had a relatively quiet end to a busy week on Friday. US equities retreated from their 14-month highs (S&P500 -0.4%), while bond yields increased...

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Another hawkish ECB hike

• Weaker USD. ECB delivered another hawkish hike. Policy divergence between the ECB & US Fed has boosted the EUR & weighed on the USD.• AUD stronger. Compounding the softer USD was another strong local labour market report & expectations China could announce stimulus to boost growth.• BoJ today. No changes expected. But tweaks appear inevitable. JPY is at quite low levels. We think there are more upside than downside risks from here. US and European markets diverged overnight, with contrasting central bank expectations a driver. European equities eased back (EuroStoxx50 -0.3%) and bond yields rose after the ECB delivered...

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AUD: break-out or bull-trap?

After a rather torrid May, the AUD has sprung back to life over the past few weeks. At ~$0.6820 the AUD is around the top of its ~4-month range. The AUD has also outperformed on the crosses. AUD/EUR is near its highest level since mid-March, AUD/GBP has moved above its 50-day moving average (~0.5341), diverging interest rate and macro trends have propelled AUD/NZD over ~1.10 for the first time since late-February, AUD/CNH has touched a ~2-year high, and AUD/JPY is north of ~96 (heights it hasn’t been at since last September). There has been raft of important economic events and...

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