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AUD

29 Jun 2023

Even higher for even longer

• Rates re-pricing. Positive US GDP & jobless claims data has seen interest rate expectations adjust higher. US bond yields have moved up.• USD firm. The repricing has supported the USD, although yesterday’s better than expected AU retail sales data has helped the AUD hold its ground.• AUD events. Ahead of next week’s ‘line-ball’ RBA rate decision, the China PMIs, Eurozone CPI, and US PCE deflator are due today. Bond markets came alive overnight, with yields spiking on the back of stronger than anticipated data. In the US, the run of positive surprises continued. Q1 US GDP growth was revised...

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28 Jun 2023

AUD tumbles

• Central bankers. Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde & BoE Governor Bailey maintained a ‘hawkish’ message. The BoJ remains an outlier.• AUD slides. AUD has continued to fall (now 4.3% below its mid-June highs). A firmer USD compounded the slowdown in Australian headline inflation.• AU events. Retail sales & job vacancies due today. A soft retail sales print is likely to add to the AUD’s woes. RBA meets next week. Central bank speak was in focus overnight with Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, BoE Governor Bailey, and BoJ Governor Ueda appearing on a panel. On net, a ‘hawkish’...

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28 Jun 2023

Signs of US resilience lift dollar

The dollar is strengthening and Treasury yields are pushing higher after yesterday’s raft of second-tier data releases pointed to continued outperformance in the US economy relative to its rivals.  Durable goods orders topped expectations in May, posting a 1.7 percent gain against a forecast -0.9 percent decline. New home sales jumped 12.2 percent, well above the predicted 1.2-percent gain. And consumer confidence surged, smashing market forecasts and suggesting that cooling inflation is intersecting with strong labour markets to bolster optimism about the economy’s direction. The Conference Board’s index jumped to 109.7, beating consensus estimates that were set closer to 102. An...

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28 Jun 2023

CPI adds to the AUD’s woes

The AUD continues to fall back down to earth with the larger than expected slowdown in Australia’s monthly CPI indicator the latest piece of news that has exerted pressure on the currency. At ~$0.6640 the AUD is ~3.7% below its mid-June highs. The pull-back has been inline with our thinking, given we believed that the AUD had run too far too fast earlier this month (see Market Musings: AUD: break-out or bull-trap?) Data wise, the monthly headline inflation measure slowed sharply, from 6.8%pa to 5.6%pa in May (market forecast 6.1%pa). This is the slowest annual run rate in headline inflation...

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27 Jun 2023

Higher for longer

• Diverging markets. US equities higher, supported by stronger data. Bond yields up with ‘hawkish’ rhetoric from ECB President Lagarde also at play.• FX markets. USD mixed. EUR firmer, while USD/JPY edged up. The world’s key central bankers speak tonight. Could this rattle risk markets?• AUD mixed. AUD unwound its CNY strength inspired gains. AUD/EUR lower. Australia’s monthly CPI indicator is released today. Mixed fortunes across markets overnight with stronger than expected US economic data and ‘hawkish’ messages from central bankers pulling asset classes in different directions. In terms of the data, US new home sales increased to their highest...

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