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AUD

06 Dec 2023

Growth worries return

• Bond yields. Weaker than expected data & drop in oil has bolstered rate cut bets, pushing long-end bond yields lower once again.• Shaky sentiment. Negative sentiment gave the USD a bit of a boost. After clawing back ground earlier on, the AUD is back down where it was 24hrs ago.• AU GDP. Economic momentum has stepped down. While the growth outlook supports the case for no more hikes, RBA cuts could still be some time away. Global bonds have continued to power ahead. Weaker than expected data and an oil price slump has eased inflation worries, bolstered rate cut...

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05 Dec 2023

Australia’s growth pulse: down but not out

Australian GDP data is notoriously backward looking. We are now ~2/3’s of the way through Q4 and the print for Q3 was only released today. Nevertheless, the detailed national accounts are still useful in providing a guide to the underlying picture across a broad range of areas and helps us benchmark how trends are unfolding compared with our thoughts. The GDP report illustrates that momentum across the economy has stepped down, unsurprising given the 425bps worth of rate hikes put through by the RBA this cycle and other cost of living factors that are hitting the private sector. The economy...

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05 Dec 2023

Bond yields fall again

• Lower yields. A drop in US job openings & dovish ECB comments weighed on bond yields. But relatively larger falls in Europe supported the USD.• RBA holds. No change from the RBA. The lack of a tweak to its guidance compounded the firmer USD. The AUD’s pull-back extended overnight.• Data flow. Q3 AU GDP due today, while in the US labour stats will remain in focus with ADP employment tonight & non-farm payrolls rounding out the week. Bond market moves were in focus overnight and this flowed through to FX with the USD firmer thanks to some EUR and...

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05 Dec 2023

Cognitive dissonance in markets begins to correct

Risk-sensitive currencies are giving back some of last week’s gains this morning, tumbling in the face of a resurgent dollar. US Treasury yields are climbing and the greenback is pushing higher as investors begin to question whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates aggressively without a “hard landing” in the economy next year. With unemployment inching up, consumer spending showing clear signs of exhaustion, and business capital expenditures shifting into reverse, the typical indicators of a recession are blinking red, and data out this week—today’s Institute for Supply Management services survey, and Friday’s November non-farm payrolls report—could provide more evidence...

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04 Dec 2023

RBA in focus today

• Partial reversal. US bond yields & the USD rebounded, while US equities dipped. There was no major economic news overnight.• AUD pull-back. Ahead of today’s RBA decision the AUD has lost ground. No change in rates is anticipated with focus on the RBA’s forward guidance.• US jobs. There is a slew of US jobs data out the next few days that will test expectations looking for no further Fed hikes & for cuts to start in May. Short term gyrations continued overnight with US bond yields and the USD rebounding, while across equities the S&P500 (-0.5%) and tech-focused NASDAQ...

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