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AUD

Steady as she goes

• Consolidation. Positive momentum in equites stalled & bond yields slipped back. USD ticked up a bit, but the AUD remains near the top end of its 3-month range.• US macro. US home sales fell again as tighter conditions bite. FOMC meeting minutes reiterated that they are now in a position to “proceed carefully”• RBA speak. Comments yesterday by Gov. Bullock & the November meeting minutes struck a slightly more ‘hawkish’ tone. Gov. Bullock gives a speech tonight. It has been a rather uneventful night with market moves modest. Positive momentum in US and European equities stalled (S&P500 -0.2%) and...

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USD on the ropes

• Positive tone. Equities generally added to recent gains, bond yields consolidated, oil & copper rose, & the AUD has edged up to a ~3-month high.• Weaker USD. The USD has remained on the backfoot. The US leading economic index fell again, pointing to a sharp growth slowdown over the period ahead.• RBA rhetoric. Today, RBA Gov Bullock appears on a panel & the minutes of the November meeting are released. Gov Bullock delivers a speech tomorrow night. It has been a relatively quiet start to week across markets. Equities have generally added to recent gains with the US outperforming....

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Risk sentiment rebound

• Positive tone. Risk sentiment improved on Friday. Equities were firmer, oil & copper rose, & the USD lost ground. The AUD rebounded.• Holiday markets. It looks set to be a quieter week due to US Thanksgiving (Thurs), reduced US trade on Friday, & with few global events scheduled.• RBA speak. November meeting minutes are released (Tues), while Governor Bullock is appearing on a panel (Tues), & delivering a speech (Weds). Twists and turns continued on Friday with markets ending the week on a more positive note following Thursday’s negative tone. European equities rose (EuroStoxx50 +0.9%) and the US S&P500...

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Twists & turns

• Shaky sentiment. Growth concerns dampened risk sentiment. Bond yields slipped back, oil fell, & the AUD lost some ground after a strong few days.• Job trends. Signs the US labour market is cracking are increasing. In Australia employment positively surprised. Unemployment ticked up, but it is still low.• RBA rhetoric. Next week in addition to the meeting minutes (Tues), Governor Bullock is appearing on a panel (Tues) & giving a speech on the outlook (Weds). A slightly more negative tone across markets overnight with the run of soft US economic data supporting views growth momentum is slowing, and that...

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Diverging macro trends

• Yield rebound. US yields partially recovered. But equities added to their gains & the USD consolidated. The backdrop helped the AUD hold its ground.• Global data. US PPI inflation undershot expectations, & US retail sales weakened. By contrast, momentum in China is improving & Australian wages quickened.• AU jobs. AU employment report today. Labour force lottery may be nosier than usual thanks to school holidays & impacts from the voice referendum. Following yesterday’s US inflation driven drop US bond yields partially reversed course overnight. The US 2yr and 10yr rates rose 8-9bps, however it hasn’t been enough to recoup...

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