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AUD

28 Sep 2022

Market Briefing: Depressed Earnings Weigh on Global Market Sentiment, Boosting Dollar

US equity futures are falling and the dollar is climbing after weak earnings releases from the likes of Amazon and Apple provided more evidence of a slowdown in the world’s largest economy. The ten-year Treasury yield is flirting with the 4-percent threshold once again, commodities are weaker, and oil price gains are stalling out. Canada’s dollar is struggling to push through the 1.35 mark. The euro is trading back below parity against the dollar after the European Central Bank delivered a widely-expected 75 basis point hike but removed statement language that had previously suggested rates would ratchet higher at the...

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06 Sep 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Weakens as Market Mood Brightens

With a refreshing long weekend behind them and back-to-school lunchboxes (lovingly packed by their moms) sitting on their desks, traders are tiptoeing into markets in a cautiously-optimistic manner this morning. Yields are falling, futures on most major equity indices are in the green, and the dollar is weakening as risk appetite improves. The Australian dollar remains on the defensive after the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its cash rate target by half a percentage point for the fourth consecutive time, continuing the most aggressive monetary tightening cycle in decades as it struggles to bring inflation under control. Central bankers hinted...

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23 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Steamrolls Rivals Ahead of Powell Speech

Global markets are bowing before the almighty dollar once more as investors brace for Friday’s central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Every major US equity index ended yesterday in the red, commodities are down again, and risk-sensitive currencies are in retreat. Markets think Mr. Powell will assert the Federal Reserve’s intent to lift rates into restrictive territory – and keep them at those levels – in Friday’s speech. Terminal Fed Funds expectations have shot up from 3.25 percent in late July to 3.75 percent now, and implied rate cuts have fallen by more than a third as investors have...

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22 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Expectations for Jackson Hole Ramp Up Amid Late-August Trading Lull

With anticipation building in markets ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole on Friday, the dollar is trading near a five-week high, short term Treasury yields are up, and equity futures are tumbling. Investors expect the Federal Reserve chair to tilt against the recent loosening in financial conditions, emphasizing the central bank’s willingness to hit the economic brakes as it works to bring inflation under control. But “there is no terror in the bang,” as Alfred Hitchcock put it, “only in the anticipation of it”. Mr. Powell will almost certainly acknowledge signs of slowing economic momentum and is unlikely...

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16 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Keeps Rising. We Don’t Know Why.

The dollar is climbing for a second day, but coherent explanations for the move are in short supply. One could argue that investors are clinging to safe havens as the prospect of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy darkens the outlook, but China’s peculiar growth model means it subtracts net demand from the rest of the world, and commodity-linked and growth-sensitive currencies appear to be holding ground so far. Europe is relatively quiet. The pound exhibited no discernible reaction earlier this morning on signs of cooling in the British labour market, and the euro remains under pressure on news...

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