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Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

Growth worries

• Growth concerns. Weaker German IFO data is another sign the global economy is losing steam. Risk sentiment remains cautious.• Central bankers. The major global central bankers speak tomorrow night. An inflation fighting message could keep the USD firm, in our view.• AUD sluggish. Global backdrop is weighing on the AUD. We see a bit more downside. Locally, CPI indicator & retail sales are due over coming days. Choppy trade to start the new week, but on net risk sentiment remains cautious with growth concerns front of mind. The dramatic weekend events in Russia haven’t generated a meaningful market impact....

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Recession risks rattle markets

• Global worries. PMI data underwhelmed reinforcing recession concerns. Equities & bond yields fell, while the USD has strengthened.• AUD pressure. The backdrop has weighed on the cyclical AUD. Locally, the CPI indicator (Weds) & retail sales (Thurs) can influence RBA rate hike expectations.• Central bankers. Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, BoE Governor Bailey, & BoJ Governor Ueda speak on Wednesday. Risks markets remained under pressure at the end of last week as global recession concerns rattled nerves. Weekend geopolitical developments in Russia is another thing to add to the ‘worry wall’. Economically, the June business PMIs for the...

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Hawks in the BoE nest

• Hawkish surprise. BoE delivered a 50bp hike. At 5% the BoE bank rate is at its highest since early-2008. High inflation points to more hikes to come.• Markets thinking ahead. UK long-end bond yields & GBP dipped as the negative economic impacts of higher rates start to become more of a focus.• Firmer USD. US yields & the USD rose. AUD slipped back further. Weaker global growth is a negative backdrop for risk sentiment & the AUD. Central banks remain laser focused on breaking the back of high/sticky inflation, with growth considerations still down the pecking order. Overnight, the...

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Another BoE rate hike expected

• Mixed markets. Equities lower. US yields little changed but European yields rose. Fed Chair Powell reiterated that 2 more hikes is a “pretty good guess”.• Hot UK inflation. UK core inflation at its highest since 1992. Bank of England set to hike again tonight. The debate is on the size of the move.• AUD mixed. AUD hovering near ~$0.68. AUD has lost ground against the EUR & JPY over the past few days. External headwinds still in place for the AUD. Mixed fortunes across markets overnight. Equities were a bit weaker, with the tech-focused NASDAQ underperforming (S&P500 & EuroStoxx50...

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Shaky sentiment

• Negative vibes. US on holiday, but European equities dipped & bond yields rose. Hawkish central bank rhetoric was a factor.• China stimulus. Lack of an announcement by China on a stimulus package also weighed on sentiment. We think markets are too ‘bulled up’ about China stimulus.• AUD softer. AUD has given back a little ground. RBA meeting minutes released today. RBA’s Kent & Bullock also due to speak. With the US on holiday it was a relatively quiet night for markets, though risk appetite has been softer across those that were open. European equities dipped (EuroStoxx600 -1%), oil prices...

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