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Daily Market Briefing, Asia Pacific

03 Oct 2023

Markets JOLTED again

• US yields higher. Positive US job openings pushed US yields higher. This helped the USD & weighed on risk sentiment. AUD slipped below ~$0.63.• USD/JPY volatility. After moving above ~150 USD/JPY tumbled. FX intervention wasn’t confirmed. The moves helped the USD stabilise.• RBA & RBNZ. No change from the RBA yesterday. RBNZ meets today with rates expected to be held steady. AUD/NZD is near levels last traded in late-May. Familiar themes and trends were on show again overnight. A stronger US JOLTS (i.e. job openings) report generated another jump up in bond yields and some further USD strength which...

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27 Sep 2023

Higher Oil, stronger USD

• Oil & bonds. Oil prices have continued to rise. Inflation risks are underpinning bond yields. Relatively higher US yields have supported the USD.• AUD struggles. The stronger USD has washed through FX markets. EUR touched its lowest level since early-January. AUD hit a fresh 2023 low.• Local data. Headline inflation re-accelerated. Improvement in core inflation is slow going. Pressure on the RBA to tighten further remains. Retail sales due today. Another night of bearish sentiment with a further jump in oil prices fanning inflation fears which in turn feed through to bond yields and a stronger USD. WTI crude...

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26 Sep 2023

Bearish vibes

• Negative sentiment. Elevated bond yields, sluggish US data, & US government shutdown jitters dampened risk sentiment. Equities lower. USD firm.• AUD sluggish. The backdrop has weighed on the EUR & GBP. AUD also a bit lower. Since 2015 AUD has only traded sub ~$0.64 ~2% of the time.• AU CPI. Monthly CPI indicator released today. The large jump in petrol & stickiness across services prices points to a re-acceleration in inflation. A negative night for risk sentiment. News flow has remained light but the outlook for ‘higher for longer’ interest rates on the back of still elevated inflation and...

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25 Sep 2023

Bond yields bounce back

• Bond yields. Long-end yields jumped up overnight. US 10yr around its highest since Q4 ’07. This & soft Eurozone growth supported the USD. EUR sub 1.06.• Mixed messages. AUD/USD lost a little ground yesterday, but AUD outperformed its European peers. Positioning metrics appear quite ‘net short’ AUD.• AUD events. Monthly AU CPI indicator due tomorrow & retail sales released on Thursday. Various factors point to a re-acceleration in inflation. After easing slightly at the end of last week bond yields jumped back up overnight, led by moves at the long-end of the curve. German and UK 10yr yields rose...

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24 Sep 2023

Another US government shutdown looming?

• Negative vibes. Bond yields eased back & US equities continued to lose steam. The global PMIs illustrated ongoing sluggish growth momentum.• USD mixed. GBP remains on the backfoot as markets price in ‘peak’ rates. USD/JPY rose after the BoJ held steady. AUD ticked a bit higher.• Event radar. Locally, monthly CPI & retail sales due this week. Offshore, EZ CPI & US PCE data released. Risk of another US government shutdown also rising. The upswing in bond yields paused for breath on Friday and equity markets continued to lose steam. US and UK 10yr yields ended Friday ~6bps lower...

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