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USD

Twists & turns

• US data. US PMIs stronger than expected. This fanned the flames of the ‘higher for longer’ rates view. US bond yields rose & equities dipped.• FX moves. USD a bit firmer, but net FX moves have been modest. AUD extended its pull-back to be near ~$0.66, in-line with its 1-month average.• Data calendar. A few bits & pieces released today such as UK retail sales & US durable goods orders. Next week AU retail sales & monthly CPI are due. Some more twists and turns in the global economic data with the US business PMIs for May coming in...

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Nvidia Earnings Offset Fed Losses in Currency Markets

The US dollar is edging lower as risk appetite recovers from a surprisingly-hawkish set of Fed minutes. The greenback surged yesterday afternoon after a record of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting showed officials expressing doubts over whether interest rates were tight enough to bring inflation down to target, weighing on rate cut expectations across the front of the curve. According to the minutes, although policymakers generally thought the central bank was “well positioned,” there were “many” who felt “uncertainty about the degree of restrictiveness” being imposed on the economy. “Various participants mentioned a willingness to tighten policy further should risks...

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Hawkish Fedspeak Forces Modest Market Retreat

Traders are staying in their foxholes this morning after a flock of Fed officials delivered a remarkably unified message on rate cuts, warning markets not to expect easing to begin for many months yet. Speaking at the Peterson Institute in Washington yesterday, Governor Waller counselled patience, saying “In the absence of a significant weakening in the labour market, I need to see several more months of good inflation data before I would feel comfortable supporting an easing in the stance of monetary policy”. At a separate event, Cleveland’s Loretta Mester said “I need to see a few more months of...

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Data reinforcing central bank divergence

• Consolidation. US equities ticked up & based metals rose, while yields dipped despite ‘hawkish’ Fed rhetoric. USD & AUD tread water.• Divergence. Slower Canadian inflation bolstered BoC rate cut bets. Will today’s UK CPI do the same? Divergence with the RBA is AUD supportive.• RBNZ today. Rates expected to be held steady. Restrictive settings are working. Will the RBNZ tweak its forecast track to show earlier rate cuts? Another quiet night with limited net moves across the major markets. In contrast to the modest dip in European equities US stock markets ticked up again with the S&P500 (+0.3%) recording...

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Cautious Fed Messaging Puts Markets on the Defensive

The dollar is inching off a five week low after a slew of Federal Reserve officials repeated their “higher for longer” mantra in a series of appearances yesterday, forcing markets to push rate cut expectations a little farther out. The greenback weakened in recent weeks as a slew of softer-than-anticipated data releases pointed to slowing economic momentum, but gained slightly during yesterday’s session as Federal Open Market Committee members Bostic, Daly, Jefferson, and Mester all said they would need to see more evidence of cooling inflation before contemplating an easing in policy. Markets are back to pricing in a little...

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