USD

Starting conditions today differ starkly from 2017. Government finances are far more stretched, limiting the scope for new fiscal stimulus. Inflation remains somewhat elevated, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain tighter monetary policy. Higher interest rates are biting: job creation has slowed, the housing market has weakened, and businesses are cutting back on investment.  Government finances are already stretched. Budget surplus or deficit, % share of gross domestic product1980 – 2024 Investors are already wary of a renewed immigration crackdown that could drive up labour costs, eroding corporate profits. Another trade war might compound inflation while denting consumer spending. Trading...

The US dollar is poised for a promising start to 2025, buoyed by a confluence of supportive factors. Strong domestic fundamentals, a relatively-hawkish Fed, optimism surrounding Donald Trump’s electoral victory, and a weak economic backdrop in the rest of the world should underpin incremental gains.  But the honeymoon is unlikely to last. The delayed impact of the Fed’s aggressive post-pandemic tightening is already hitting housing market activity, and labour markets are cooling. After a long period of surprisingly strong growth, consumer demand seems likely to slow, and heightened policy uncertainty stemming from Trump’s unpredictable agenda could erode business confidence, weakening...