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Dollar rises as markets brace for strong jobs number

The dollar is climbing against all of its major rivals as traders buy insurance against another strong jobs report. Economists think US non-farm payrolls, out at 8:30, will rise by 200,000 in December, with the unemployment rate holding at 3.7 percent. The “whisper number” on Wall Street appears closely aligned, with most market participants prepared for a print between 150,000 and 250,000 that keeps the Federal Reserve on a tightening trajectory – suggesting that a buy-the-rumour, sell-the-news dynamic could hit the greenback in the minutes after the release. The Canadian dollar remains on a defensive footing even as Statistics Canada...

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Conflicting narratives keep dollar rangebound

The trade-weighted dollar flatlined overnight as optimism surrounding China’s reopening process helped offset cautious commentary from Federal Reserve officials. The pound and euro are giving back some of yesterday’s gains as falling inflation prints put pressure on yields, and the Canadian dollar is down slightly on the day – but has gained on a year-to-date basis along with other commodity-linked currencies. Currency markets shrugged yesterday when a record of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting was released, showing that officials thought “substantially more evidence” of easing inflation would be needed before rate hikes could pause. Central bankers warned “an unwarranted easing...

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Market Briefing: Dollar fades as rebalancing flows gain momentum

Currency market volumes are rebounding as participants return to their desks and position for a reversal of the US exceptionalism trade that dominated throughout 2022. The dollar is weaker against every other major this morning, and yields are softer across the front end of the curve – even as traders brace for relatively-hawkish meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve later in the day. The Aussie is a clear outperformer after Chinese authorities began discussing an end to an unofficial ban on Australian coal imports. Unconfirmed reports circulated by Bloomberg and Reuters this morning suggest the National Development and Reform Commission...

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Market Briefing: Risk appetites – and the dollar – jump into a new year

Happy new year, and may all our market troubles last as long as our resolutions. Investors are in a relatively ebullient mood to kick off 2023, with most major equity indices pointing to a stronger open, while bond yields on both sides of the Atlantic slip. The Canadian dollar and Japanese yen are eking out small gains, but the greenback is almost a full percentage point higher on a year-to-date basis as traders trim excessive bets on the euro. The Japanese yen is slightly weaker after pushing through the 130 mark against the dollar in yesterday’s thin trading conditions. Investors...

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Market Wire: Resilient North American Data Keeps Tightening Expectations Alive, Weighing on Risk Appetites

American households slowed spending last month but the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure exceeded expectations, bolstering the case for continued tightening in 2023. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed inflation-adjusted household outlays were unchanged in November, decelerating sharply from the 0.5-percent gain posted in the prior month. Markets had expected a print closer to 0.2 percent. Personal income rose 0.4 percent month-over-month, led by a 0.5-percent increase in private sector wages and salaries. Incomes are 4.7 percent higher relative to the same month last year. The core personal consumption expenditures index – targeted by the...

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