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21 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Risk appetite worsens as holiday-thinned trading week begins

A sense of caution has settled over currency markets this morning as hopes for a recovery in the Chinese economy fade – and as participants brace for a liquidity-thinned week in which accidents can have bigger-than-normal consequences. The dollar is up against most of its risk-sensitive rivals after the number of coronavirus cases in China continued to climb, forcing several cities back into lockdown, and demolishing the idea that consumer demand would suddenly spring back to life. This comes even as markets have become increasingly convinced that US inflation is rolling over against a still-robust economic backdrop – bringing the...

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18 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Risk appetite improves as Fed jawboning efforts help stabilize rate expectations

The dollar is slipping and risk sensitive exchange rates are recovering this morning as risk appetite improves after yesterday’s hawkish comments from Fed officials. Mr. Bullard, notoriously hawkish, but not a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee next year, said rates might have to climb above 5.25 percent as previous increases have “had only limited effects on observed inflation”. Neel Kashkari – once one of the most dovish Fed policymakers – walked a similar path later in the day, saying “we cannot be overly persuaded by one month’s data”, helping to push back against the wholesale loosening in...

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17 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Strong US retail sales prompt Fed second-guessing, lifting the dollar

Equity futures are pointing to a weaker session, yields are holding ground, and the dollar is edging upward as the impact of yesterday’s stronger-than-expected retail sales report continues to reverberate across the economic landscape. American consumers showed no sign of slowing spending in October, with receipts rising for basic inputs like gas and food, along with higher-value items like furniture and new cars – a dynamic that suggests household balance sheets continue to support increased consumption levels. If this is sustained, the implications for Federal Reserve policy are clear: rates will have to climb higher than currently assumed. Chancellor Jeremy...

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16 Nov 2022

Market Wire: Strong North American data releases restrain hopes for monetary policy easing

Canadian inflation stabilized last month, keeping monetary policy expectations largely unchanged. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index rising 6.9 percent on a year-over-year basis in October, with the month-over-month change hitting 0.6 percent – narrowly missing consensus economic forecasts for a 0.7 percent gain. Gasoline prices leapt 9.2 percent higher month-over-month, partially reflecting a rebound in global oil benchmarks. Food price gains decelerated, but kept climbing, up 0.4 percent on the month, after rising 1.2 percent in September. Shelter costs renewed their ascent, up 0.8 percent month-over-month as higher interest rates took their toll....

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16 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Currency market rebalancing continues as inflation fears ebb

Equity bourses are setting up for another day of gains and the dollar is continuing its retreat after data out yesterday morning showed US producer price increases slowing in October for a second month, adding to evidence of an easing in inflation pressures. Yields are essentially unchanged and risk appetite remains robust across the foreign exchange markets, with commodity-linked and high-beta currencies eking out small gains as the big European units recover from months of selling. The euro has regained its poise after selling off when a rocket hit a village in Poland, raising the risk of an escalation in...

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