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USD

05 Dec 2022

Market Briefing: Year-end rebalancing flows weigh on dollar into quiet data week

The dollar continues to lose altitude as market participants gradually rebalance portfolios ahead of a new calendar year. With US economic outperformance fading, the Federal Reserve expected to slow and then pause its tightening cycle, energy prices falling, and geopolitical shocks fading, many investors have become less willing to crowd into long-greenback positions, and demand for alternatives is growing. Oil prices are steady even after the Group of Seven industrialized democracies agreed to cap shipments of Russian crude at $60 a barrel. Under the plan, Western companies will be barred from insuring, financing, or shipping Russian oil unless it is...

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02 Dec 2022

Market Wire: Strong jobs reports bolster rate bets

263,000 jobs were created in the United States last month, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged – suggesting that the labour market remains too tight for the Federal Reserve’s liking. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the unemployment rate held at 3.7 percent in November, and the participation rate moved down to 62.1 percent from 62.3 in the prior month, indicating that fewer workers are coming off the sidelines. Average hourly earnings rose 0.6 percent month-over-month, accelerating from the pace set in October. Ahead of the release, investors were positioned for a 200,000-job gain,...

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02 Dec 2022

Market Briefing: Greenback continues to tumble ahead of jobs report

The dollar continued its descent overnight as traders bet on a weaker jobs report and a slower pace of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The trade-weighted greenback is down almost 1.5 percent this week, floating near a four-month low as American yields come under pressure and interest rate differentials shrink in favour of other major currencies. The benchmark ten-year US treasury yield is holding near 1.51 percent, down sharply after Jerome Powell’s less-hawkish-than-expected speech on Wednesday. Yesterday’s data showed American consumer spending hitting new heights, even as inflation pressures cooled. Supported by robust income gains and a falling savings...

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01 Dec 2022

Market Briefing: Markets fly as Powell saves Christmas

The dollar is down sharply after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell sounded a less hawkish tone in his last public speaking engagement before the central bank’s December 13-14 meeting. At times, Mr. Powell sounded positively Grinch-like, warning that a “sustained period of below-trend growth” would be necessary to bring inflation down. He noted signs of moderating price pressures in the October consumer price report, but said it would take “substantially more evidence to give comfort that inflation is actually declining”. “I will simply say that we have more ground to cover,” he said. “History cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy....

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30 Nov 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar weakens as year-end rebalancing begins

Risk-sensitive currencies are moving higher and the dollar is under pressure as traders position for a more stable – and less divergent – Federal Reserve in 2023. With growth gaps narrowing and the US tightening cycle reaching its logical conclusion as other central banks catch up, bets against American exceptionalism are growing in scale in the run-up to year end. Beijing’s crackdown on protesters continued overnight, with security officials pledging to take action against “hostile forces” threatening the state – but health authorities said they would ramp up vaccination of older citizens, addressing a significant hurdle to reopening the economy....

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