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13 Sep 2022

Market Wire: US Inflation Accelerates, Raising Monetary Policy Expectations

Headline US consumer inflation jumped by more than expected in August, and core price growth gained momentum, putting upward pressure on short-term yields as market participants bet the Federal Reserve would continue tightening at an aggressive pace. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the consumer price index climbed 8.3 percent in August from the same period last year, up 0.1 percent on a month-over-month basis. Economists polled by major data providers expected an 8.1 percent annual gain and a -0.1 percent decrease relative to July’s flat month-over-month number. A -5 percent month-over-month drop in...

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13 Sep 2022

Market Briefing: Currency Market Tensions Rise Ahead of Inflation Report

Markets are in a cautiously optimistic mood and the dollar is coming under sustained pressure ahead of this morning’s consumer inflation report. Equity futures are up, Treasury yields are down, and risk-sensitive currencies are seeing solid inflows as traders bet US monetary policy expectations reached their cycle top last week – a view that could prove vulnerable if prices rise by more than expected. Economists think headline prices probably continued their gasoline-powered descent in August, with the core measure rising as other areas of the economy caught up. Investors are overwhelmingly positioned for a 75 basis-point hike at next week’s...

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12 Sep 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Rally Pauses as Global Policy Landscape Shifts

Equity markets are poised for a strong open and the greenback is retreating ahead of data that could reinforce the “peak inflation” narrative and influence longer-term monetary policy expectations. The trade-weighted dollar is slipping from multi-decade highs and a broad-based improvement in risk appetite is visible across most major asset classes, suggesting that traders and investors are cutting short positions in preparation for tomorrow’s August consumer inflation report. The euro is powering higher, extending its biggest rally in at least six months as interest rate differentials narrow. The spread between US and German yields narrowed to a one-month low over...

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09 Sep 2022

Market Briefing: Currency Markets Reverse Direction on Narrowing Yield Gaps

The dollar is tumbling as currency traders unwind wagers on ever-widening gaps between the world’s major central banks. With the Bank of Japan inching closer to a shift in policy direction, the European Central Bank making hawkish noises, and an energy price cap reducing pressure on the Bank of England, yield differentials are moving in a more synchronized fashion than in recent months – and evidence of a slowing in the Chinese economy is helping reduce the greenback’s safe-haven appeal. The pound is recovering after new Prime Minister Liz Truss announced plans to hold average household energy bills at no...

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08 Sep 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Rally Pauses as Global Policy Landscape Shifts

The dollar is pausing for breath after stampeding through global financial markets for more than a week. The euro, pound, and yen are exhibiting signs of stability ahead of a central bank decision in Europe, fiscal intervention in the UK, and a senior-level policy meeting in Japan. The European Central Bank is expected to raise all three of its benchmark rates by 75 basis points, tightening policy aggressively as it moves to keep inflation expectations under control. The euro could remain weak as investors focus on painful price pressures and looming recessionary threats, with the central bank’s updated projections for...

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