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USD

21 Oct 2022

Market Briefing: US Yields Keep Climbing, Tightening Vise on Markets

As hopes for a policy “pivot” fade, US Treasury yields are continuing their inexorable ascent this morning. Equity markets look set to extend yesterday’s losses, commodities are coming under renewed pressure, and currency traders are buying the dollar once again. Terminal rate expectations are still rising. In a speech yesterday, the Philadelphia Fed’s Patrick Harker said “Given our frankly disappointing lack of progress on curtailing inflation, I expect we will be well above 4 percent by the end of the year,” and warned tightening would likely continue into 2023, saying “Sometime next year, we are going to stop hiking rates”....

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20 Oct 2022

Market Briefing: UK Political Turmoil Continues, Yen Breaks 150, Dollar Climbs

The British pound is back on the defensive, weakening as political chaos and conflicting monetary policy messages sap demand for sterling-denominated assets. Prime Minister Liz Truss—now in power for all of 44 days—is under pressure to resign after firing one of her most senior ministers, receiving resignations from two more, and threatening others with disciplinary action if they failed to vote on party lines. A number of Ministers of Parliament have submitted no confidence letters, and the chair of the 1922 Committee—which represents the views of party leaders—is reportedly meeting with Truss to discuss ways to move forward. The Bank...

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19 Oct 2022

Market Briefing: Currency Markets Trade Sideways as Yields Creep Higher

Volatility expectations are inching back up, Treasury yields are climbing, and the dollar is firming as central bank officials keep making hawkish noises. Rate differentials tilted further in the greenback’s favour and terminal expectations moved higher during yesterday’s session after Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari said rate hikes wouldn’t pause until core inflation subsides, and said “I don’t see why I would advocate stopping at 4.5 percent or 4.75 percent or something like that”. The pound is down more than half a percent after an inflation report showed prices rising 10.1 percent in the year to September, higher than the...

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18 Oct 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Shows (Tentative) Signs of Exhaustion

The dollar bull is looking tired, but is not ready yet to keel over. With idiosyncratic issues hitting the yen and yuan, losses in the trade-weighted greenback still look relatively modest, but an improvement in global risk appetite is helping the pound, euro, and high-beta currencies inch higher ahead of the North American equity market open—and weakness could become more entrenched as signs of a maturing rate cycle begin to emerge against a sparse data backdrop. The pound is trading within a consolidative range, with yesterday’s wholesale reversal of the government’s fiscal plans continuing to offer support – even as...

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17 Oct 2022

Market Briefing: Truss Turnabout Bolsters Sentiment

Risk-sensitive assets are staging a mild recovery this morning after the UK government said it would shelve a package of unfunded fiscal measures that had triggered alarm in gilt and global funding markets. Equity indices are setting up for a stronger open and the ten-year US Treasury yield is pushing back below 4 percent, providing relief across the financial system. The dollar is weaker, and commodity linked units are rising on the crosses as traders hesitantly tiptoe back into still-turbulent foreign exchange markets. The pound jumped and gilt yields fell after new chancellor Jeremy Hunt reversed virtually all of his...

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