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27 Sep 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Weakens as Markets Pause for Breath

The dollar is retreating and North American equity bourses are setting up for a stronger open as the sense of fear that gripped markets over the weekend begins to ebb. The pound is climbing after gaining more than a full percentage point overnight as it recovers from a two-day selloff that triggered memories of 1992’s Black Wednesday. The plunge began when new chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng on Friday proposed pairing billions of pounds in energy subsidies with the biggest package of tax cuts in decades. Nerves are still frayed, but gilt yields are falling as panic fades and traders consider the...

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26 Sep 2022

Market Briefing: Cable Snaps, Destabilizing Currency Markets

The pound sank like a dinghy in the North Atlantic over the weekend, hitting record lows against the greenback and contributing to a worsening in sentiment across the global financial system. In several interviews, Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng seemed to shrug off Friday’s devastating market reaction to the new UK government’s proposed fiscal plans and doubled down on tax cuts, saying there was “more to come”. The sterling-dollar pair — often known as the “cable” — briefly dropped almost 4.7 percent before staging a modest recovery as traders positioned for a response from the central bank. Calls for...

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23 Sep 2022

Market Briefing: Great British Peso Plummets, Dollar Grinds Higher

The British pound is selling off violently – a bit like an emerging market currency – after the government said it would borrow heavily to fund tax cuts and energy price subsidies. In a dramatic pivot away from long-standing fiscal orthodoxy, Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng said the United Kingdom would cut income, property, and dividend taxes, abandon limits on banker bonuses, and pour tens of billions of pounds into protecting households from rising gas and electricity prices. Gilt yields jumped by more than a third of a percentage point as investors braced for renewed inflation pressures and worried...

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22 Sep 2022

Market Briefing: Japanese Intervention and Fed Aftershocks Pummel Currency Markets

Global asset prices plunged and yield differentials tilted violently in the dollar’s favour yesterday after the Federal Reserve turned more hawkish than expected. The central bank hiked by 75 basis points for a third time, but the “dot plot” forecasts inflicted more damage on markets, showing that a solid majority of members expect to raise rates above 4.5 percent next year – even if this risks an economic downturn. Market-implied pricing shot up during the announcement and press conference, with the Federal Funds rate now expected to end the year around 4.4 percent, up from 4.2 percent yesterday morning. The...

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21 Sep 2022

Market Wire: Dollar Soars as Fed Raises Terminal Rate Expectations

The Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points and drastically raised its terminal rate estimates, triggering a spike in yields and the dollar. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3-to-3.25 percent, with no dissents in favour of a 50 basis point move. In the official statement laying out the decision, policymakers removed language that previously highlighted a softening in spending and production, instead noting that “modest growth” should be expected. According to the accompanying Statement...

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