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USD

24 Feb 2023

Hotter-Than-Expected Inflation Lifts Terminal Rate Forecasts

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure exceeded expectations in January, bolstering the case for continued tightening in the months ahead. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index – targeted by the Fed – rose 0.6 percent in January from the prior month, up 4.7 percent year-over-year – topping consensus estimates. The overall personal consumption expenditures index was up 5.4 percent from a year ago, well above forecasts.  Personal income rose 0.6 percent month-over-month, led by a 0.9-percent increase in private sector wages and salaries, along with a substantial jump in...

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24 Feb 2023

Looming Inflation Data Reinforces Market Caution

Risk appetites and trading ranges remain subdued across the financial markets this morning as investors brace for an inflation report that could show the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening efforts are having little effect on underlying price pressures – or on overall aggregate demand. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure will land in less than half an hour, with markets prepared to see more evidence of overheating. Economists think the headline headline personal consumption expenditures deflator rose 0.5 percent month-on-month, with the annual rate holding at 5 percent. Consumer spending is seen increasing 1.4 percent from the prior month, and personal...

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23 Feb 2023

USD recovery continues

• Mixed markets. US equities are a little stronger, with US bond yields slightly lower. However, the USD remains firm.• US data focus. Initial jobless claims remain low, a sign the labour market is still tight and that the US Fed has more work to do.• AUD pressure. AUD slipped below 0.68 overnight before recovering modestly. We see further near-term downside on the back of a stronger USD. While market moves have generally been modest, underlying themes have remained the same, especially in FX markets. US equities whipped around overnight, but have ended the day in positive territory (S&P500 +0.6%),...

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23 Feb 2023

Markets Enter Winter Freeze After Fed Minutes

Markets are struggling to dig themselves out of the snow this morning as a steady tightening in financial conditions threatens to cool global demand growth and weigh on corporate earnings. Yields inched higher and the dollar climbed after a record of the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting at the beginning of the month, released yesterday, showed a “few” non-voters lobbying for a half-percentage-point interest rate hike, even as a quarter-point move garnered unanimous support from the core group. According to the minutes, “A number of participants observed that a policy stance that proved to be insufficiently restrictive could halt recent progress...

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22 Feb 2023

AUD underperformance

• Higher for longer. The Fed meeting minutes reaffirmed a hawkish bias. Elevated US interest rate expectations are supporting the USD.• AUD pressure. Weaker than expected wages data has seen RBA rate hike bets pared back. Relative differentials point to further AUD weakness.• AUD crosses. European growth indicators continue to surprise, pointing to a lower AUD/EUR. AUD/NZD weighed down by a ‘hawkish’ RBNZ. A mixed night across the major markets, with European and US equities consolidating and bond yields down a few basis points. After hitting a fresh 3-month high the US 10-year bond yield has eased back slightly, but...

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