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USD

21 Nov 2023

Dollar fades ahead of Fed minutes

The dollar keeps slipping, slipping, slipping into the future. With this afternoon’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes expected to confirm an increasingly-dovish consensus among policymakers, the greenback is trading near its August lows, down almost 3 percent on a trade-weighted basis this month. The record of deliberations leading up to the central bank’s early-November decision is likely to show officials seeing growth and inflation risks as more “balanced,” with “many” or “most” participants seeing rates as “near, or already at a sufficiently restrictive” level – language that should bring market-implied odds on a final rate hike down to near zero. The...

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20 Nov 2023

USD on the ropes

• Positive tone. Equities generally added to recent gains, bond yields consolidated, oil & copper rose, & the AUD has edged up to a ~3-month high.• Weaker USD. The USD has remained on the backfoot. The US leading economic index fell again, pointing to a sharp growth slowdown over the period ahead.• RBA rhetoric. Today, RBA Gov Bullock appears on a panel & the minutes of the November meeting are released. Gov Bullock delivers a speech tomorrow night. It has been a relatively quiet start to week across markets. Equities have generally added to recent gains with the US outperforming....

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20 Nov 2023

Volatility falls into holiday-shortened week

Goldilocks is eating everybody’s porridge this morning, ignoring her mama’s warnings about ruining her appetite for Thanksgiving. With markets increasingly convinced the US economy is headed into a period of not-too-warm, not-too-cold growth, the dollar is trading at its lowest levels in more than two months, Treasury yields are holding steady, and equity futures are edging higher ahead of the open. Implied volatility measures continue to trend lower across asset classes. Currency markets are exhibiting typical “dollar smile” dynamics as a narrowing in expected growth rates and a drop in US rate projections helps spark a recovery in outbound capital...

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19 Nov 2023

Risk sentiment rebound

• Positive tone. Risk sentiment improved on Friday. Equities were firmer, oil & copper rose, & the USD lost ground. The AUD rebounded.• Holiday markets. It looks set to be a quieter week due to US Thanksgiving (Thurs), reduced US trade on Friday, & with few global events scheduled.• RBA speak. November meeting minutes are released (Tues), while Governor Bullock is appearing on a panel (Tues), & delivering a speech (Weds). Twists and turns continued on Friday with markets ending the week on a more positive note following Thursday’s negative tone. European equities rose (EuroStoxx50 +0.9%) and the US S&P500...

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17 Nov 2023

Short memories

Investors are increasingly convinced that the Federal Reserve will cut rates aggressively next year as inflation slows – even if the economy experiences a “soft landing”, with growth and employment holding up relatively well. We’re not so sure. Scientists have long known that we tend to carry the macroeconomic lessons learned in our youth throughout our lives. People who lived through the Great Depression remained less likely to participate in stock markets throughout their investing careers, more favourable economic conditions led the early Baby Boomers to maintain persistently higher allocations to equities, and individuals who came of age around the...

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