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10 Jan 2023

Markets Go Eerily Quiet As Data Calendar Calms

Currency markets are treading water this morning, with most majors turning in a mixed performance against the dollar ahead of Thursday’s all-important US inflation print. Treasury yields are moving in almost-imperceptible ranges, equity bourses are mostly flat, and the commodities complex is advancing incrementally as the session proceeds. The Canadian dollar is holding steady, but appears to be building a foothold that could support gains later in the week if US price growth subsides in line with expectations. Japan’s yen is trading on a more solid footing after Tokyo consumer prices jumped 4 percent year-over-year in December, topping market forecasts...

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09 Jan 2023

Bulls Stay in the Ascendant after ‘Goldilocks’ Jobs Report

Financial markets are very happy with their porridge this morning. Equities are up, yields are soft, and the dollar is trading near a seven-month low. Friday’s just-right non-farm payrolls report, in which unemployment fell and wage gains were surprisingly muted, had a profound impact on investor psychology, convincing many that the Federal Reserve’s much-vaunted “soft landing” scenario is being borne out in the data. The jobs numbers look incredibly positive: 223,000 positions were added in December, the unemployment rate fell back to a 53-year low at 3.5 percent, and revisions showed average hourly earnings growth subsiding to 4.1 percent year-over-year....

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06 Jan 2023

Strong jobs reports bolster rate bets

223,000 jobs were created in the United States last month, and the unemployment rate fell further – giving the Federal Reserve further motivation to raise rates. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5 percent in December, and the participation rate moved up to 62.3 percent from 62.1 in the prior month, indicating that some workers are coming off the sidelines. Average hourly earnings rose 4.6 percent year-over-year, slower than expected, but still well beyond levels that would suggest inflation pressures have receded. Ahead of the release, investors were positioned...

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06 Jan 2023

Dollar rises as markets brace for strong jobs number

The dollar is climbing against all of its major rivals as traders buy insurance against another strong jobs report. Economists think US non-farm payrolls, out at 8:30, will rise by 200,000 in December, with the unemployment rate holding at 3.7 percent. The “whisper number” on Wall Street appears closely aligned, with most market participants prepared for a print between 150,000 and 250,000 that keeps the Federal Reserve on a tightening trajectory – suggesting that a buy-the-rumour, sell-the-news dynamic could hit the greenback in the minutes after the release. The Canadian dollar remains on a defensive footing even as Statistics Canada...

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05 Jan 2023

Conflicting narratives keep dollar rangebound

The trade-weighted dollar flatlined overnight as optimism surrounding China’s reopening process helped offset cautious commentary from Federal Reserve officials. The pound and euro are giving back some of yesterday’s gains as falling inflation prints put pressure on yields, and the Canadian dollar is down slightly on the day – but has gained on a year-to-date basis along with other commodity-linked currencies. Currency markets shrugged yesterday when a record of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting was released, showing that officials thought “substantially more evidence” of easing inflation would be needed before rate hikes could pause. Central bankers warned “an unwarranted easing...

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