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USD

03 Mar 2023

Markets Rally on Mixed Fed Messaging

Markets are preparing to build on yesterday’s rally with further gains in today’s session. Equity futures are setting up for a stronger open, Treasury yields are lower across the curve, and commodity prices are up. The dollar is lower against all of its major counterparts. Media commentary yesterday suggested markets moved higher on dovish messaging from the Atlanta Fed’s (non voting) Raphael Bostic during a panel discussion hosted by the National Association for Business Economics – but we’re struggling to see evidence of a clear shift in positioning. Bostic did seem to anchor terminal rate expectations lower than market-implied levels...

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02 Mar 2023

Rates still adjusting

• Higher yields. Markets continue to adjust interest rate expectations higher with inflation pressures showing limited signs of abating.• USD rebound. The larger lift in US bond yields has boosted the USD. Equity markets are looking increasingly complacent to the macro landscape.• AUD crosscurrents. Relative interest rate differentials are a AUD headwind. But the high level of commodity prices is an underlying support. The upswing in bond yields has continued with markets coming around to the view that interest rates will need to keep moving higher and stay at very elevated levels for some time to slow growth and (hopefully)...

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01 Mar 2023

Bond yields still rising

• Higher bond yields. Inflation pressures and ‘hawkish’ rhetoric continues to fuel expectations of ongoing rate hikes by the major central banks.• China reopening. Large lift in the PMIs on the back of the reopening. This has supported commodities. But it may add to inflation down the track.• AUD range bound. Positive China developments has been offset by sluggish domestic growth and signs inflation has passed its peak. The upswing in global bond yields has continued, with inflation concerns front-of-mind for investors. Positive risk sentiment in yesterday’s Asian trade generated by the large lift in the China PMIs as the...

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01 Mar 2023

China Reopening Hopes Lift Markets

March is coming in like a lion, with risk appetite rebounding across asset classes on evidence of a stronger-than-expected recovery in the Chinese economy. The US dollar is in retreat as investors pile into the euro on hopes for stronger exports, and as they buy emerging market currencies on an expected rise in raw materials demand. Major North American equity bourses are setting up for a stronger open even as Treasury yields tick higher. The Canadian dollar is gaining, but continues to lag a broader improvement in the commodity complex. The China reopening trade roared back to life last night...

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28 Feb 2023

Growth momentum slowing

Q4 2022 Australian GDP was weaker than predicted. The domestic economy expanded by a sluggish 0.5% (mkt 0.8%), with annual growth stepping down to 2.7%pa. A closer look at the detail doesn’t paint that much of a rosy picture. Net exports were a large positive contributor to growth in Q4 (adding 1.1%pts to the quarterly result), thanks to a rebound in coal exports and travel services which were boosted by the inflow of tourists and returning students. Consumption of services was also positive once again, though the slowing trend suggests the post-lockdown catch-up spending on services has now largely run...

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