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Exhibit 1

There's only one story in FX markets.

Change In Spot Exchange Rate Against USD, Relative to September 27, 2022, %

Exhibit 2

Supplier costs are tumbling.

Change in Producer Price Index, %

Exhibit 3

Inflation is rolling over. Everywhere.

Annual Change in Core Consumer Prices, %

Exhibit 4

Chinese exports surged in March.

Monthly Exports, Billions USD

Exhibit 5

Growth is beating expectations.

Annual Change in Gross Domestic Product, Constant Prices for China, Chained 2012 Prices for US, %

Exhibit 6

Volatility expectations are falling.

Change In Index Value, Relative to January 2, 2019, %

Exhibit 7

The dollar is firmly on the defensive.

Trade-Weighted Dollar Indices

Exhibit 8

Speculators are rebuilding short positions.

Net Long (+) or Short (-) US Dollar Futures Position Held by Large Speculators, Billions US Dollars

Exhibit 9

Carry trades could outperform.

Year to Date Return, Carry and Volatility-Adjusted Carry, %

Exhibit 10

But rate expectations look unrealistic.

Implied Federal Funds Rate, %

Easing Wagers Pull Back Slightly as Wariness Returns
China data in focus
Soft Landing Hopes Drive Dollar Lower
AUD outperformance to continue?
US inflation jolts the AUD
US Inflation Stabilises and Spending Slows, Supporting Fed Easing