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Chartbook: April 24

Exhibit 1

Currency markets are still unwinding last year's excesses.

Change in exchange rate relative to January 02, 2022, %

Exhibit 2

Japanese inflation rates remain elevated, but are heading for a rollover.

Annual change in core inflation rate, %

Exhibit 3

Rate expectations remain deeply divergent.

Implied change in policy rate relative to April 24, 2023, %

Exhibit 4

The economy's momentum hasn't slowed.

Subcomponent contributions to forecasted growth aggregate, %

Exhibit 5

Wage growth is still running hot.

3-month average of median wage growth, %

Exhibit 6

But credit growth is slowing.

Deposits, Consumer Loans, Commercial and Industrial Loans, and Other Loans and Leases, All Commercial Banks, Billions USD

Exhibit 7

Jobless claims are ticking higher.

Initial unemployment claims, thousands

Exhibit X

Another debt ceiling panic is approaching.

Statutory debt ceiling (gaps where suspended) versus total debt outstanding, trillions USD

Exhibit 8

But fear indicators look overblown.

Five-year credit default swap prices, December 15, 2007 - April 21, 2023

Global inflation pressures building
8 hours ago
Iran headlines dominate currency market price action
20 hours ago
Middle East uncertainty continues
1 day ago
Living on borrowed time
1 day ago
Iran cycle continues, keeping yields and the dollar aloft
1 day ago
Caution creeps back in as US-Iran truce remains unresolved
4 days ago

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Latest Analysis

All Commentary
Global inflation pressures building
02 June, 2026
• Holding on. Modest financial market moves. US equities & oil tick up. NZD a bit softer. AUD edges up slightly & outperforms on the crosses.• Data flow. More signs US jobs market is holding up....
Iran headlines dominate currency market price action
02 June, 2026
Treasury yields and the dollar are retreating from yesterday’s highs after Hezbollah and Israel agreed to temporarily halt cross-border fighting, giving Iranian officials cause to return to the bargaining...
Middle East uncertainty continues
01 June, 2026
• Headline noise. Conflicting Middle East news generated a few bursts of volatility. US bond yields & USD ticked up. NZD & AUD lost a bit of ground.• Macro events. Eurozone CPI tonight. US non-farm...
Living on borrowed time
01 June, 2026
The US Treasury market has long served as the world’s financial anchor—deep, liquid and reliably stable. That reputation for placidity is becoming harder to sustain*. America is borrowing at a pace that...
Iran cycle continues, keeping yields and the dollar aloft
01 June, 2026
Good morning. Equities look set to extend May’s advance at this morning’s open, even as the dollar and Treasury yields climb amid another round of escalatory strikes in the Middle East. Overnight,...
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On October 19th, Albertans will answer a question no province outside Quebec has ever formally put to its voters: whether to begin the legal process toward a binding referendum on leaving Canada. The wording...
Middle East uncertainties keep markets guessing
26 May, 2026
Good morning. Oil prices are climbing and the dollar is trimming its losses against major peers as hopes for a near-term diplomatic resolution to reopen the Strait of Hormuz fade amid a fresh round of...
Unemployment & the RBA
21 May, 2026
• Market swings. Conflicting US/Iran reports generated volatility. US equities a bit higher. USD whipped around. Local/offshore factors push/pulled the AUD.• AU jobs. Weak jobs report in April. Employment...

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