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The latest news impacting economies, business, and finance around the world, specifically curated to focus on currency markets.
Moscow may seize private US assets in Russia if US seizes frozen reserves, says Putin ally - Reuters
2 hours ago
Moscow may seize private US assets in Russia if US seizes frozen reserves, says Putin ally Reuters
6 hours ago
US intelligence believes Putin probably didn't order Navalny to be killed, Wall Street Journal reports Reuters
17 hours ago
Wall St Week Ahead Lofty US stocks leave investors punishing earnings disappointments Reuters
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Inflation Progress Stalls, Putting Fed Cuts Further Out of Reach
26 April, 2024
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure remained stuck at elevated levels in March, but a feared overshoot was avoided, helping alleviate market tensions. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.3 percent in March from the prior month, but January’s number was revised higher to 0.5 percent, bringing the...
Markets Mark Time Into Key US Inflation Print
26 April, 2024
Good morning, and welcome back. The US dollar and Treasury yields are holding steady at elevated levels after a first-quarter gross domestic product report pushed easing expectations further out. North American equity indices are advancing in the premarket on the back of another set of monster earnings releases from Microsoft and Alphabet. Oil prices are stable, and risk-sensitive currencies are eking...
Stagflation worries return
25 April, 2024
• Stagflation concerns. Slower US growth & sticky inflation rattled nerves. US yields rose. Equities slipped back. But on net the USD eased.• AUD rebound. The positive Q1 Australian CPI surprise & repricing in RBA rate expectations has underpinned the AUD over the past few days.• BoJ today. No changes expected, but upgrades to inflation forecasts could see the BoJ deliver a ‘hawkish’...
Currencies Stabilise as Expected Growth Differentials Narrow
23 April, 2024
The dollar is holding steady and Treasuries are stable ahead of auctions that could see yields hold above the 5-percent threshold for the first time since November. The US will sell a record $69 billion in two-year notes later today, followed by $70 billion in five-year paper tomorrow, and another $44 billion in seven-year maturities on Thursday, testing investor demand for yields that could look attractive...
Will the positive vibes last?
22 April, 2024
• Positive tone. Equities rose & bond yields slipped back. No new news was good news for markets. AUD edged higher & outperformed on the crosses.• Business PMIs. European & US PMIs released today. Leading indicators point to a pick up in global industrial activity over coming months.• AU CPI. Australian quarterly inflation due tomorrow. Signs the improvement in core inflation is stalling...
Markets Recover As Geopolitical Risk Premia Evaporate
22 April, 2024
The dollar is retreating and Treasury yields are slipping as geopolitical tensions ease and traders shift focus toward more prosaic market drivers. After a weekend in which Israel and Iran refrained from further escalation, North American equity indices are setting up for a positive open, oil and safe-haven gold prices are heading lower, and a range of major currencies are inching higher against the...
Sentiment swings
21 April, 2024
• Burst of vol. Middle East tensions generated some vol. on Friday. The initial ‘risk off’ moves faded. US bond yields reversed course. The AUD rebounded.• Lofty USD. US interest rates have repriced a lot recently. Less than 40bps of Fed cuts now assumed in 2024. The USD may need a new driver to go higher.• Event radar. Locally, Q1 CPI is due (Weds). Offshore, Eurozone PMIs (Tues), US GDP...
Israeli Strike Triggers Short-Lived Volatility Spike
19 April, 2024
Foreign exchange markets are slowly reverting to normal after suffering a major selloff last night when Israel launched strikes against targets near the Iranian city of Isfahan – home to facilities associated with the country’s nuclear program, including its underground Natanz enrichment site. Risk-sensitive currencies plunged amid a wholesale flight to safety as initial reports flooded in, but...
Dollar Juggernaut Slows, But Remains Powerful
17 April, 2024
Treasury yields are slipping and the dollar appears on the verge of snapping a five-day winning streak, but losses look likely to remain moderate after Fed chair Jerome Powell effectively reset the clock on rate cuts, suggesting that the central bank would need to see several more monthly inflation reports before beginning to ease policy. Speaking during a question-and-answer session in Washington...
Higher for (even) longer
16 April, 2024
• Fed speak. Chair Powell endorsed the upswing in rates pricing by noting the lack of further progress on inflation. US yields rise, equities fall.• USD support. The rates outlook is underpinning the USD. AUD touched its lowest level since mid-November with USD trends overpowering China GDP.• Priced in? Markets are now discounting a very ‘hawkish’ Fed interest rate outlook. The lofty USD...