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Exhibit 1

Speculators are doubling down on long-euro bets.

Net Long (+) or Short (-) US Dollar Futures Position Held by Large Speculators, Billions US Dollars, As at May 2, 2023

Exhibit 2

Economic surprise indices are diverging again.

Citigroup Economic Surprise Indices, %

Exhibit 3

Regional banks are still under pressure.

KBW Bank Index

Exhibit 4

Credit creation is slowing.

Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Tightening Standards for Commercial and Industrial Loans to Small, and Large and Middle-Market Firms

Exhibit 5

But loan volumes haven't crashed.

3-Month Net Change in Loans, All Commercial Banks, Billions USD

Exhibit 6

And underlying fundamentals remain surprisingly strong.

Index: January 2019 = 100

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