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USD

29 May 2023

Subdued holiday markets

• Holiday markets. Limited moves with the US, UK, & parts of Europe on holiday. In-principle agreement to raise US debt ceiling to be voted on over coming days.• Global data pulse. Global data flow picks up later this week. China PMIs (Weds), Eurozone CPI (Thurs) & US labour market report (Fri) in focus.• AUD consolidating. Global forces should act as a AUD headwind, offsetting support expected to be generated by upcoming local events. A quiet 24hrs across global markets with the US, UK, and some European countries on holiday, and no major economic data released. Across the markets that...

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28 May 2023

Debt ceiling deal (nearly) done

• US debt ceiling. An agreement to raise the ceiling looks to have been reached. It must now be voted on by both chambers of Congress.• Back to fundamentals. Removing a tail risk should see markets refocus on the policy outlook. US inflation is still too high. Another strong labour market report should be USD supportive.• AUD cross-currents. AUD found some support. Shift in relative interest rate expectations & softer global growth pulse likely to limit the AUD’s rebound. Markets ended last week on more positive footing, with equities rising (the US S&P500 rose 1.3% while the tech-focused NASDAQ outperformed...

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27 May 2023

US debt ceiling deal sets stage for modest relief rally

President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have reached an agreement in principle to avert a US debt default that could have devastated the global economy and financial system.  Several major media organizations have reported the tentative deal will suspend the debt ceiling for two years, with domestic spending frozen near current levels even as outlays on defence and veteran affairs are increased. Firm details are not yet available, but informed opinions suggest work requirements under family assistance and food stamp programmes will be tightened, energy sector approval processes will be streamlined, and some newly-approved Internal Revenue Service...

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26 May 2023

Hot inflation and spending numbers put a summer rate hike firmly on the Fed’s table

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure accelerated last month, helping lift the likelihood of another rate hike at one of the central bank’s next two meetings, while helping put a floor under Treasury yields and the dollar. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the core consumer expenditures price index rose a faster-than-anticipated 0.4 percent in April from the month prior, up 4.4 percent on a year-over-year basis, beating market expectations for a 0.3-percent gain. Consumer spending climbed 0.5-percent and personal income inched 0.4 percent higher month-over-month, with pandemic-era savings and higher asset values continuing to fuel extraordinarily-strong levels of consumption...

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25 May 2023

AUD & NZD pressure points

• USD upswing. Market pricing for the US Fed has shifted substantially over recent weeks. This is supporting the USD. AUD hit a 2023 low overnight.• US debt ceiling. Limited progress with the ‘x-date’ fast approaching. Ratings agencies have flagged the risk of a US sovereign rating downgrade.• AUD underperformer. The global backdrop is weighing on the AUD. Australian retail sales released today, but offshore forces are more important Mixed fortunes across asset markets, although underlying issues and risks such as the US debt ceiling negotiations, slowing growth, and still high inflation, remain firmly in place. US equities rose as...

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