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11 May 2023

US inflation: still a long way from home

Given its influence over US monetary policy and interest rates, which in turn shape broader asset and FX markets, trends in US inflation are critical to watch. Indeed, we would argue that while Australia’s inflation pulse influences domestic interest rates and the AUD, these impacts are swamped by US inflation developments as they can affect not only US macro-outcomes but also global growth expectations, credit spreads, commodity prices, global equities, and world bond markets. At a topline level, the April reading of US inflation shows that things are moving in the right direction. ‘Peak’ inflation is behind us, but genuine...

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10 May 2023

Has Fed rate cut pricing gone too far?

• US inflation. Some tentative signs the US inflation pulse is cooling. But core inflation remains a long way from the Fed’s target.• Fed pricing. Interest rate markets appear too eager to price in the Fed cutting cycle. Expectations that cuts could start as soon as July look misplaced.• AUD resistance. AUD ticked up, but again found resistance ~$0.68. Another Bank of England rate hike & hawkish tone could see AUD/GBP slip back. Mixed fortunes and choppy trade across markets, with the latest US inflation print in focus overnight. US equities endured some intra-day volatility but ended the day in...

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10 May 2023

US inflation slows, providing lift to global asset prices

With the Ukraine energy shock falling out of year-over-year calculations and goods price growth continuing its descent, US consumer inflation slowed slightly more than expected last month. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the headline consumer price index rose 4.9 percent in April from the same period last year, up 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was slightly below the 5.0 percent consensus estimate among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. Energy costs climbed 0.6 percent month-over-month, while the food index remained unchanged. New vehicles fell by -0.2 percent more...

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09 May 2023

US CPI in focus

• Cautious tone. US debt ceiling concerns, more signs of a global slowdown, & tonight’s US CPI inflation data are on investors minds.• US CPI. Markets now assuming no further Fed rate hikes & are factoring in over two cuts by year-end. Another high core inflation print could see rate cut bets pared back, supporting the USD.• Budget relief. Targeted measures aimed at low income households should provide some cost of living relief. But will it lead to more inflation down the track? Markets traded a bit more cautiously overnight with US debt ceiling concerns, more signs of a global...

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09 May 2023

Markets retreat as slowdown fears become more entrenched

Price action in financial markets is restrained and the dollar is inching higher against its risk-sensitive counterparts as investors monitor debt ceiling negotiations and take positions ahead of tomorrow’s inflation data. Yields are lower and equities are on the defensive after Chinese authorities said export shipments to the rest of the world shrank 6.4 percent in April, providing more evidence of a deepening global economic slowdown. The first Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey released in the aftermath of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse showed lending conditions continuing to tighten – but not at the pace economists had feared. 45 percent of banks raised...

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