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SGD

19 Apr 2023

Global inflation trends

• Hot UK CPI. Higher than expected UK CPI boosted bond yields overnight. Markets are now factoring in a few more BoE rate hikes this year.• NZ inflation slows. NZ CPI came in below expectations. NZD dipped and AUD/NZD moved higher as markets question the RBNZ rate outlook.• AUD holding. AUD hovering just above $0.67. RBA review to be released today. US Fed speakers are also on the calendar over the next 24hrs. The rebound in global bond yields has continued, with Europe leading the way. Another hotter than expected UK CPI print, the only major economic data of note...

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18 Apr 2023

Steady as she goes

• Calm markets. Limited moves across markets. The USD gave back a little ground. US Fed speakers will be in focus later this week.• China data. China GDP higher than predicted. Growth is being driven by consumer spending. Industrial production & investment underwhelmed. Diverging sector performance points to more AUD/EUR downside.• AUD/NZD in focus. NZ CPI released tomorrow. Will the data meet the RBNZ’s lofty forecasts? We see AUD/NZD moving higher over the medium-term. Markets paused for breath overnight, with movements across most assets well contained despite an array of data and US earnings results. US equities ended the data...

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17 Apr 2023

China data in focus

• USD firmer. A further rebound in US bond yields on the back of stronger US data and comments by a Fed official has supported the USD.• China focus. China data, which includes Q1 GDP, released today. Growth should mechanically lift following the end of COVID-zero. But are expectations too high?• AUD range trading. AUD held up in the face of a firmer USD overnight. The China data could generate some AUD volatility today. The rebound in the USD Index has continued, with the USD stronger against the other major currencies over the past 24hrs. EUR has dipped back towards...

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16 Apr 2023

Will the USD recovery continue?

• USD rebound. The lift in US inflation expectations and hawkish Fed comments boosted US interest rate pricing and supported the USD.• AUD falls back. The bounce back in the USD has weighed on the AUD. The China data batch is the main AUD event this week.• AUD/NZD edging higher. NZ CPI inflation released later this week. A result close to consensus should reinforce thinking the RBNZ has reached a rate peak. The USD bounced back on Friday, with Thursday’s losses unwound. US economic data and ‘hawkish’ comments from a key Federal Reserve official boosted US interest rate expectations and...

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13 Apr 2023

MAS assuming the brace position

At its 14 April policy review, the Monetary Authority of Singapore surprised markets by maintaining “the prevailing rate of appreciation” of the SGD NEER. The MAS also held the width and center of the currency band steady. This reflected the MAS’ relatively more downbeat view of global and domestic growth, and expectations inflation will slow materially over 2023 (see below for more details). In the words of the MAS, given the “intensifying risks” to growth and unfolding turn in inflation, it judges the current SGD NEER appreciation path “is sufficiently tight and appropriate for securing medium-term price stability”. As the...

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