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SGD

Will the RBA hold the line?

• Upbeat tone. Last weeks larger than expected rate cut by the US Fed continues to wash through markets. US PCE deflator in focus this week.• Global PMIs. Softer Eurozone PMIs weighed a bit on the EUR. US PMIs holding up. Cyclical currencies like the NZD & AUD remain firm.• RBA today. In contrast to its peers the RBA is expected to keep rates on hold today. Divergence between the RBA & others is underpinning the AUD. The implications of last week’s bigger than expected 50bp rate cut by the US Federal Reserve continues to be digested by markets. The...

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Will US payrolls rebound?

• Mixed signals. US equities rose on Friday. Bond yields nudged up. US holiday tonight but there is plenty of important data on the horizon.• USD bounce. Higher US yields generated a bit of USD support. AUD eased. Markets still look to be pricing in too much US Fed easing, in our view.• Event radar. Locally, Q2 GDP & a speech by RBA Gov. Bullock in focus. Offshore, US jobs data due with non-farm payrolls rounding out the week. US equities rose on Friday with the S&P500 (+1%) now fractionally under its record high. The early-August panic volatility has faded...

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USD doldrums

• Mixed markets. Equities slip back, while bond yields & the USD lose ground. EUR above ~$1.11 for first time this year. AUD at ~1-month high.• Global events. JPY also stronger. BoJ research papers keep door open to more hikes. Canadian inflation slows & Sweden’s Riksbank cuts rates again.• US data. Annual US payrolls revisions due tonight. Downward revisions look likely. PMIs (Thurs) & Fed Chair Powell’s speech (Fri) the main events. Mixed, albeit modest moves, across asset markets overnight. After a stellar run equities paused for breath with the US S&P500 slipping back (-0.2%), its first fall in 9...

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USD on struggle street

• Risk on. Equities continue to climb with the S&P500 up for the 8th straight day. The USD has weakened. The AUD is up at a 1-month high.• Fed comments. A few Fed officials have suggested a cut in September is up for debate. Chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole later this week.• Already priced? But this already looks well priced in. Cautious comments from Powell could see US rate expectations & the USD rebound. No new major news continues to be good news for markets. Equities have continued to power ahead. The US tech-focused NASDAQ outperformed (+1.4%) with the...

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Busy week ahead

• Consolidation. Quiet end to a volatile week. Equities continue to recover. Bond yields slip back. USD treading water. AUD below 200-day moving average.• Divergence. RBA pricing still stands out. First RBA cut factored in by Feb. By this point the US Fed & RBNZ are assumed to have cut by ~120-140bps.• Event radar. Several important releases this week including US CPI/retail sales, China data batch, UK jobs/inflation, RBNZ meeting, & AU jobs/wages. It was a rather quiet and uneventful end to a volatile week on Friday. The recovery in equities continued with the US S&P500 and Japanese Nikkei edging...

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