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SGD

06 Jun 2023

RBA hammer blow

• Quiet night. Equities a little higher. Bond yields consolidated. The USD index edged up slightly. AUD held onto its post RBA gains.• RBA hike. Cash rate now 4.1% with inflation concerns stepping up. We expect another hike. FX is a relative game. AUD is also influenced by global trends.• AUD events. RBA Governor Lowe speaks today & Q1 AU GDP is released. China trade data is also due. Bank of Canada meets tonight. An uneventful night for markets with limited news flow and no major economic releases. European and US equities ticked up. The US S&P500 rose by ~0.2%,...

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05 Jun 2023

RBA in focus

• Softer US data. The dip in the services ISM exerted some downward pressure on US bond yields & the USD late in US trading.• RBA in focus. Will they or won’t they hike today? We think it is a line ball call. Most analysts & the rates market are leaning towards no change.• AUD reaction. Given expectations, AUD reaction could be uneven, with a hike likely to generate a relatively larger lift compared to the pull-back on an on hold decision. US markets consolidated overnight, with equities easing slightly (S&P500 -0.2%) and bond yields a bit lower. After rising...

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05 Jun 2023

A matter of when, not if the RBA moves again

• US labour market. Another punchy US payrolls report. US yields rose, as did the USD. Broader risk sentiment remains positive.• Limited offshore data. Global event calendar is limited this week. Over the weekend Saudi Arabia announced a cut to its oil production.• RBA in focus. Will the RBA deliver another hike this week? Markets factoring in a ~40% chance. Given pricing, there could be an asymmetric AUD reaction. Risk sentiment remained positive at the end of last week. Equities added to recent gains with the US S&P500 rising by another ~1.5%. The S&P500 is now at its highest level...

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01 Jun 2023

False dawn?

• Optimistic markets. Sentiment improves, as a ‘skip’ by the Fed at the June meeting is factored in. Equities higher, bond yields & USD a bit lower.• US labour data. AUD has been boosted by the improved risk appetite. US labour market report released tonight. This could see the USD bounce back.• Wage decision. Ahead of the US data, the minimum/award wage decision is handed down this morning. This could influence RBA expectations & the AUD. The new month has started on positive footing with risk sentiment improving. But, from our perspective, the underlying data pulse and rationale given for...

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31 May 2023

Global growth concerns

• Growth worries. Weaker than expected China PMIs added to global growth concerns. This has dampened risk sentiment. AUD touched a new ~6-month low.• AU CPI. Inflation indicator re-accelerated more than expected. Data bolsters the case for another RBA hike. Tomorrow’s minimum/award wage decision is important.• USD firm. The USD remains near its recent highs. US ISM manufacturing survey released tonight, with non-farm payrolls due on Friday. Another negative night for risk sentiment with more signs the world economic downturn is gathering pace coming through. Across equities, the EuroStoxx50 fell 1.7% and the US S&P500 was down 0.6%. This followed...

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