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SGD

14 Aug 2023

China concerns

• Choppy markets. Developments in China weighed on risk sentiment yesterday, but things settled down overnight. US equities & bond yields higher.• Stronger USD. Higher US yields & China-related nerves pushed the USD to year-to-date highs against the CNH, JPY, SGD, NZD, & AUD.• Data focus. RBA meeting minutes, Q2 AU wages, China activity data batch, UK labour stats, & US retail sales due today. It has been a choppy start to the week for markets. Negative sentiment around developments in China weighed on sentiment during yesterday’s Asian session with investors appearing somewhat concerned about potential fallout from troubles in...

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13 Aug 2023

Inflation fears linger

• Inflation jolt. Stronger than expected US PPI data pushed US bond yields & the USD higher. US retail sales & FOMC meeting minutes due this week.• AUD struggles. Shaky sentiment & a firmer USD have weighed on the AUD. Since 2015 the AUD has only traded sub $0.65 ~3% of trading days.• Upcoming events. In addition to the US releases, the China data batch, RBNZ meeting, UK CPI, AU wages & AU jobs report are in focus this week. Equity markets remained on the backfoot on Friday as bond yields continued to edge higher following a run of stronger...

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10 Aug 2023

US CPI vs bond supply

• US CPI. The July report was largely as expected. But the rebound in commodity prices, particularly oil, points to higher US inflation over coming months.• Bond yields. US yields rose post the data following a lackluster bond auction. This dampened risk sentiment & supported the USD later in the day.• AUD sluggish. AUD/USD remains near the bottom of its ~2-month range. Outgoing RBA Governor Lowe gives his last Parliamentary Testimony today. The keenly anticipated US CPI report was released overnight, and while markets initially breathed a sigh of relief bond market gyrations later in the session unnerved investors. In...

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09 Aug 2023

All eyes on US CPI

• Jittery markets. Higher oil & gas prices have raised some concerns inflation could re-accelerate over coming months. US equities slipped back.• US CPI. Focus is on tonight’s US inflation data. Base-effects have run their course. Inflation may start to surprise ‘optimistic’ markets.• AUD sluggish. AUD/USD hovering near the bottom end of its ~2-month range. The weakness (so far) in August is inline with the seasonal pattern. Markets remain somewhat jittery ahead of the release of the July US CPI report (10:30pm AEST), and with higher commodity prices fanning concerns of a re-acceleration in inflation down the track. Brent crude...

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07 Aug 2023

US CPI in focus this week

• Positive vibes. Risk markets have started the new week on firmer footing. US equities rose & the yield curve steepened. The USD consolidated.• Regional data. AUD has found some support. Today, Australian consumer & business sentiment is released, as is the China trade data.• US CPI. The latest US inflation read is in focus this week. Base-effects are no longer as favourable. A US inflation surprise could rattle market nerves. Risk sentiment started the new week on the front foot. US equities recovered some lost ground. The S&P500 rose 0.9% overnight, though this follows last week’s 2.3% fall (the...

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