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SGD

19 Oct 2023

US Fed still proceeding carefully

• Market divergence. Equities under pressure, oil & gold higher. Long end yields rose, but the US 2yr rate fell as Fed rate hike bets were pared back.• Fed speak. Chair Powell reiterated his ‘cautious’ stance, disappointing recently built up expectations. The USD lost some ground after he spoke.• AUD vol. AUD has traded in a ~1% range. AU jobs data mixed, but conditions still tight. CPI next week. This could make or break the case for another RBA hike. Markets continue to be whipped around with Middle East developments, equity earnings results, and comments by US Fed Chair Powell...

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18 Oct 2023

Will Fed Chair Powell change his tune?

• Shaky sentiment. Renewed market wobbles as Middle East tensions were compounded by higher bond yields. Stocks fell & the USD was a little firmer.• AUD vol. AUD whipped around. Gains on the back of the better than expected China data & ‘hawkish’ tone from the RBA unwound overnight.• Upcoming events. AU jobs report released today. US jobless claims are due tonight, but more focus will be on a speech by Fed Chair Powell. Some renewed wobbles in markets overnight with Middle East tensions compounded by another move up in bond yields. Stocks retreated (US S&P500 -1.3%), while oil (WTI...

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16 Oct 2023

Shifting sentiment

• Positive vibes. Equities & bond yields rose, & the USD eased as diplomatic efforts aimed at avoiding a wider Middle East conflict calmed nerves.• AUD bounce. The backdrop supported the AUD. RBA minutes released today. China data due tomorrow, with new RBA Gov. Bullock also speaking.• US data. US retail sales & industrial production data released tonight. The US economy is consumer driven. There are signs spending is cooling. A reversal of fortunes overnight with financial markets starting the week on a more positive footing. In terms of the Middle East diplomatic efforts aimed at avoiding a wider conflict,...

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15 Oct 2023

Risky times

• Risk aversion. Middle East developments have weighed on risk sentiment. Bond yields & equities lower, while gold, oil, & the USD have been supported.• AUD pressure. The backdrop is pressuring the AUD. But we think it is starting to look stretched on several metrics. A lot of ‘bad news’ could already be priced.• Event radar. US retail sales, China data, AU jobs, & NZ CPI due. RBA Gov. Bullock speaks, & there is a conga line of Fed speakers including Chair Powell. Events in the Middle East have been front of mind for markets. Risks that the conflict is...

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12 Oct 2023

MAS holds the line

At its 13 October policy review, the Monetary Authority of Singapore didn’t rock the boat, and in line with expectations maintained “the prevailing rate of appreciation” of the SGD NEER (i.e. 1.5%pa). The MAS also held the width of the trading band and level at which it is centered steady. In our view, maintaining the width of the SGD NEER band at 2% from the midpoint gives the MAS scope to support activity should the downside global growth risks flagged materialise (see below). Going forward the MAS is shifting to quarterly, rather than semi-annual, policy reviews in 2024. The next...

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