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SGD

China PMIs & BoJ in focus

• Positive tone. Equities rose & oil prices extended their slide. Markets are taking the Middle East developments in their stride. The USD also softened.• AUD rebound. Firmer equities & a positive AU retail sales report which reinforced RBA rate hike expectations has helped the AUD recover some lost ground.• Asian focus. Today attention will be on the China PMIs & the BoJ decision. Another BoJ tweak could support the weak JPY, which in turn weighs on the USD. Markets have started the week on a more positive footing. Investors appear to be taking the Middle East developments in their...

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Push & pull forces

• Market vol. Equities lower as earnings disappoint. US yields reverse despite robust US GDP as inflation pressures ease. Oil lower in spite of Middle East tensions.• USD trends. Lower yields took some of the heat out of the USD. US economic strength boosted the USD recently. But was Q3 as good as it gets?• AUD pulse. AUD traded in a ~2% range this week. Q3 CPI supports the case for another RBA hike. Yield spreads shifting in favour of a higher AUD. Financial market gyrations are continuing, though overnight not all asset classes reacted uniformly. The slide in equities...

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Australian inflation in focus

• Data trends. Divergence between the US & Europe weighed on EUR & GBP. The AUD held up against the firmer USD & outperformed on the crosses.• China stimulus. China will issue more debt to fund infrastructure projects. Supports our view that China’s economy has passed its cyclical bottom.• RBA & CPI. Gov. Bullock stressed the Board “will not hesitate” to lift rates again “if there is a material upward revision” to the inflation outlook. CPI released today. Following the bout of volatility induced by sharp swings in bond yields earlier this week markets calmed down overnight. Equities rose with...

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Bond market volatility

• Bond gyrations. Large swings in US bond yields generated volatility across other asset markets. On net US yields fell & this dragged down the USD.• AU events. Ahead of tomorrow’s Q3 CPI data, new RBA Governor Bullock speaks tonight. Will Governor Bullock maintain the more ‘hawkish’ tone?• Global data. The latest batch of Eurozone, UK & US PMIs are due today. The PMIs will provide an update on the pulse of activity & price pressures. Another bout of bond market volatility cascaded through other asset classes overnight. There was little new news or data to rattle nerves or shift...

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Macro trends vs geopolitical risks

• Negative vibes. Equities lost more ground on Friday. Bond yields also dipped, with oil, gold, & the USD consolidating. Middle East developments remain in focus.• AU CPI. Q3 inflation due Wednesday. Quarterly growth in core inflation looks set to step up. A lift could bolster expectations about another RBA rate hike.• Event radar. In addition to AU CPI, RBA Gov. Bullock speaks (Tues & Thurs). The BoC & ECB meet, & in the US Q3 GDP & the PCE deflator are due. Markets ended last week on a weaker footing with developments in the Middle East continuing to dampen...

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