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SGD

19 Nov 2023

Risk sentiment rebound

• Positive tone. Risk sentiment improved on Friday. Equities were firmer, oil & copper rose, & the USD lost ground. The AUD rebounded.• Holiday markets. It looks set to be a quieter week due to US Thanksgiving (Thurs), reduced US trade on Friday, & with few global events scheduled.• RBA speak. November meeting minutes are released (Tues), while Governor Bullock is appearing on a panel (Tues), & delivering a speech (Weds). Twists and turns continued on Friday with markets ending the week on a more positive note following Thursday’s negative tone. European equities rose (EuroStoxx50 +0.9%) and the US S&P500...

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16 Nov 2023

Twists & turns

• Shaky sentiment. Growth concerns dampened risk sentiment. Bond yields slipped back, oil fell, & the AUD lost some ground after a strong few days.• Job trends. Signs the US labour market is cracking are increasing. In Australia employment positively surprised. Unemployment ticked up, but it is still low.• RBA rhetoric. Next week in addition to the meeting minutes (Tues), Governor Bullock is appearing on a panel (Tues) & giving a speech on the outlook (Weds). A slightly more negative tone across markets overnight with the run of soft US economic data supporting views growth momentum is slowing, and that...

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15 Nov 2023

Diverging macro trends

• Yield rebound. US yields partially recovered. But equities added to their gains & the USD consolidated. The backdrop helped the AUD hold its ground.• Global data. US PPI inflation undershot expectations, & US retail sales weakened. By contrast, momentum in China is improving & Australian wages quickened.• AU jobs. AU employment report today. Labour force lottery may be nosier than usual thanks to school holidays & impacts from the voice referendum. Following yesterday’s US inflation driven drop US bond yields partially reversed course overnight. The US 2yr and 10yr rates rose 8-9bps, however it hasn’t been enough to recoup...

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14 Nov 2023

US CPI jolts markets

• US CPI. Lower than expected US inflation generated a sharp downward repricing in US rates. The plunge in bond yields weighed on the USD & boosted sentiment.• AUD jolt. The backdrop has seen the AUD rebound with the over 2% rise over the past 24hrs unwinding the bulk of last week’s fall.• Data flow. Q3 wages released today, as is the China data batch. US retail sales are due tonight with the Australian jobs report out tomorrow. All eyes were on the latest reading on US CPI inflation, and the lower than projected figures jolted markets back to life...

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13 Nov 2023

All eyes on US CPI

• Quiet trade. US equities & the USD consolidated, while yields slipped back a little. The AUD ticked up, although this follows last week’s negative run.• US inflation. US CPI released tonight. There are a few push-pull factors are play this month. Reaction in US yields & the USD is likely to be binary.• Event risks. The calendar is packed with other releases the next few days. China data batch & AU wages due tomorrow, & US retail sales is tomorrow night. It has been a subdued start to the week across markets with investors marking time ahead of the...

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