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SGD

26 Nov 2023

AUD faces some data challenges

• Trends extend. European equities ticked up, bond yields rose. Oil gave back ground. Iron ore elevated. AUD at the top of its multi-month range.• Weaker USD. USD remains under pressure. USD index is near where it started the year. Factors that propelled the USD higher have changed course.• Event radar. Locally, retail sales & monthly CPI are due. Offshore, US PCE deflator, manufacturing ISM, China PMIs & Eurozone inflation are released. It was a fairly quiet end to last week across markets with the US having a holiday shortened session on Friday following the Thanksgiving break. European equities ticked...

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23 Nov 2023

Holiday markets

• Quiet markets. US closed for Thanksgiving. European equities ticked up & bond yields rose. FX moves limited. AUD hovering near multi-month highs.• PMIs. Eurozone & UK PMIs a bit better than expected. Eurozone still in the ‘contraction’ zone but momentum looks to be stabilising.• Data quirks. Locally, retail sales & monthly CPI due next week. We think sales may fall & the CPI indicator may send a false signal. Near-term risks for the AUD. With the US on holiday celebrating Thanksgiving markets have been fairly quiet. This is likely to remain the case today given reduced activity in the...

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22 Nov 2023

RBA’s inflation challenge

• Mixed markets. US equities rose & bond yields edged up slightly. Oil eased back. USD a bit firmer. RBA rhetoric an offset for the AUD.• Volatile data. Weekly US jobless claims data a little better than expected. But some seasonal factors suggest it may not last. Eurozone PMIs due tonight.• RBA speak. Gov. Bullock delivered another speech & comments around inflation sounded hawkish. Diverging policy expectations are AUD supportive. Market volatility picked up slightly overnight as participants reacted to some partial US economic data and looked to lighten positions ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday period. The US and Japan...

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21 Nov 2023

Steady as she goes

• Consolidation. Positive momentum in equites stalled & bond yields slipped back. USD ticked up a bit, but the AUD remains near the top end of its 3-month range.• US macro. US home sales fell again as tighter conditions bite. FOMC meeting minutes reiterated that they are now in a position to “proceed carefully”• RBA speak. Comments yesterday by Gov. Bullock & the November meeting minutes struck a slightly more ‘hawkish’ tone. Gov. Bullock gives a speech tonight. It has been a rather uneventful night with market moves modest. Positive momentum in US and European equities stalled (S&P500 -0.2%) and...

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20 Nov 2023

USD on the ropes

• Positive tone. Equities generally added to recent gains, bond yields consolidated, oil & copper rose, & the AUD has edged up to a ~3-month high.• Weaker USD. The USD has remained on the backfoot. The US leading economic index fell again, pointing to a sharp growth slowdown over the period ahead.• RBA rhetoric. Today, RBA Gov Bullock appears on a panel & the minutes of the November meeting are released. Gov Bullock delivers a speech tomorrow night. It has been a relatively quiet start to week across markets. Equities have generally added to recent gains with the US outperforming....

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