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SGD

Holiday markets

• Quiet markets. US closed for Thanksgiving. European equities ticked up & bond yields rose. FX moves limited. AUD hovering near multi-month highs.• PMIs. Eurozone & UK PMIs a bit better than expected. Eurozone still in the ‘contraction’ zone but momentum looks to be stabilising.• Data quirks. Locally, retail sales & monthly CPI due next week. We think sales may fall & the CPI indicator may send a false signal. Near-term risks for the AUD. With the US on holiday celebrating Thanksgiving markets have been fairly quiet. This is likely to remain the case today given reduced activity in the...

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RBA’s inflation challenge

• Mixed markets. US equities rose & bond yields edged up slightly. Oil eased back. USD a bit firmer. RBA rhetoric an offset for the AUD.• Volatile data. Weekly US jobless claims data a little better than expected. But some seasonal factors suggest it may not last. Eurozone PMIs due tonight.• RBA speak. Gov. Bullock delivered another speech & comments around inflation sounded hawkish. Diverging policy expectations are AUD supportive. Market volatility picked up slightly overnight as participants reacted to some partial US economic data and looked to lighten positions ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday period. The US and Japan...

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Steady as she goes

• Consolidation. Positive momentum in equites stalled & bond yields slipped back. USD ticked up a bit, but the AUD remains near the top end of its 3-month range.• US macro. US home sales fell again as tighter conditions bite. FOMC meeting minutes reiterated that they are now in a position to “proceed carefully”• RBA speak. Comments yesterday by Gov. Bullock & the November meeting minutes struck a slightly more ‘hawkish’ tone. Gov. Bullock gives a speech tonight. It has been a rather uneventful night with market moves modest. Positive momentum in US and European equities stalled (S&P500 -0.2%) and...

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USD on the ropes

• Positive tone. Equities generally added to recent gains, bond yields consolidated, oil & copper rose, & the AUD has edged up to a ~3-month high.• Weaker USD. The USD has remained on the backfoot. The US leading economic index fell again, pointing to a sharp growth slowdown over the period ahead.• RBA rhetoric. Today, RBA Gov Bullock appears on a panel & the minutes of the November meeting are released. Gov Bullock delivers a speech tomorrow night. It has been a relatively quiet start to week across markets. Equities have generally added to recent gains with the US outperforming....

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Risk sentiment rebound

• Positive tone. Risk sentiment improved on Friday. Equities were firmer, oil & copper rose, & the USD lost ground. The AUD rebounded.• Holiday markets. It looks set to be a quieter week due to US Thanksgiving (Thurs), reduced US trade on Friday, & with few global events scheduled.• RBA speak. November meeting minutes are released (Tues), while Governor Bullock is appearing on a panel (Tues), & delivering a speech (Weds). Twists and turns continued on Friday with markets ending the week on a more positive note following Thursday’s negative tone. European equities rose (EuroStoxx50 +0.9%) and the US S&P500...

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