SGD

• Market swings. Some intra-session vol. around the US CPI. But net market moves have been modest. USD softer, though lower oil prices held down the AUD.• US inflation. Data matched predictions. Headline inflation slowed to 3.1%pa, while core steady at 4%pa. Firmer services shows the last leg could be difficult.• US Fed. No policy change expected. While the Fed should reiterate it may do more if needed, we think the forecasts should show that the next move will be a rate cut. There has been a bit of market volatility overnight around the release of the latest US CPI...

• Weaker JPY. Quiet markets, except for the JPY. Reports indicating the BoJ may not be in a rush to change policy has weighed on the JPY.• US CPI. US inflation tonight, ahead of this weeks Fed meeting. Signs inflation is easing should support views the next move will be to cut rates, albeit in 2024.• AUD anniversary. 40yrs since the float. Over this time AUD avg. $0.7550. But it is volatile. On avg. AUD has traded in a ~14cent range each year. It has been a quiet start to the week across most markets as participants marked time ahead...

• Bond yields. Weaker than expected data & drop in oil has bolstered rate cut bets, pushing long-end bond yields lower once again.• Shaky sentiment. Negative sentiment gave the USD a bit of a boost. After clawing back ground earlier on, the AUD is back down where it was 24hrs ago.• AU GDP. Economic momentum has stepped down. While the growth outlook supports the case for no more hikes, RBA cuts could still be some time away. Global bonds have continued to power ahead. Weaker than expected data and an oil price slump has eased inflation worries, bolstered rate cut...