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SGD

15 May 2024

US inflation jolts the AUD

• Market jolt. A slowdown in US inflation & weaker retail sales revived Fed rate cut expectations. US yields & the USD lower. Equities & AUD higher.• AUD outperformance. The backdrop & diverging monetary policy expectations have boosted the AUD. AUD/USD at a ~4-month high.• AU jobs. The monthly jobs report is due today. There have been some wild swings in recent months. A solid report could give the AUD more support. The latest read on US CPI inflation and retail sales took center stage overnight. And as we had been flagging in our recent Market Briefings and weekly Currency...

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13 May 2024

Calm before the US CPI storm?

• Quiet start. Minimal moves in equities, bonds & FX overnight. AUD little changed despite the jump in base metal prices.• AU Budget. A lot has been pre-announced. Relief measures look set to be designed to lower near-term headline CPI. But this may not impact core CPI.• US & UK data. Ahead of the US CPI report, US Producer Prices are released tonight. Fed Chair Powell also speaks. In the UK, jobs/wages data is due. A quiet start to the new week. The limited news flow has kept markets range bound. The US S&P500 ended the session unchanged. US bond...

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09 May 2024

AUD bounces back

• Softer USD. A surprise jump in US weekly jobless claims exerted some pressure on the USD. Positive risk sentiment helped the AUD.• BoE signals. BoE further opened the door to a rate cut. European central banks are leading the pack in the next global easing cycle.• Divergence. Policy divergence between the RBA & others should be AUD supportive. As should the pick up in growth in China. A more upbeat tone across risk assets overnight with the major European and US stockmarkets rising ~0.3-0.5%, oil (WTI crude +0.7%) and copper (+1.3%) firmer, and the USD losing some ground. The...

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08 May 2024

European central banks leading the way?

• Quiet markets. US equities consolidated, while 10yr yields ticked up. USD a touch firmer. AUD’s post RBA pull-back extended a bit further.• European divergence. Sweden’s Riksbank cut rates. This follows the Swiss National Bank. Will the ECB be next? BoE tonight. It may be more ‘dovish’.• Global activity. China trade data due today. Various leading indicators for global industrial activity, like the copper price, have been improving. Fairly narrow ranges in global markets overnight with limited new information coming through to shake things up. US equities consolidated with the S&P500 ending the day unchanged after moving higher over the...

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06 May 2024

A ‘hawkish’ turn from the RBA?

• Holding on. Quiet start to the week. US equities & base metals firmer. Long-end yields a bit lower, while the USD & AUD consolidated.• Fed survey. The Fed’s latest lending survey shows credit conditions are still ‘tight’. This can crimp lending & US growth over time, bringing on rate cuts.• RBA meeting. RBA in focus today. Rates pricing has adjusted higher. Will the RBA match the markets thinking? If not, the AUD could fall back. It has been a quiet start to the week across markets. This is unsurprising given the light event calendar. Last week’s moves stemming from...

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