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NZD

22 May 2023

US debt ceiling still in focus

• US debt ceiling. Talks are set to restart today. A deal is needed to be agreed quickly given the ‘x-date’ is fast approaching.• Fed pricing. Markets pricing in a chance of a June Fed hike, but are still looking for ~2-3 cuts by January. An unwind of these bets could be USD positive.• AUD holding. Limited local data flow. Global events will drive the AUD near-term. AUD/NZD sub 1.06. Tomorrow’s RBNZ meeting is in focus. It has been a quiet start to the new week with limited moves across markets as participants await the latest round of US debt...

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21 May 2023

US debt ceiling: two steps forward, 1 step back

• US debt ceiling. Talks hit an impasse. Negotiations set to resume later today. A deal is needed quickly with the ‘x-date’ coming closer into view.• AUD sluggish. Global forces will continue to drive the AUD. Beyond the debt ceiling, the global economy is slowing. This is normally a headwind for the AUD.• RBNZ hike. AUD/NZD has slipped below 1.06. RBNZ meets on Wednesday. Following the NZ Budget expectations of another ‘hawkish hike’ have risen. Optimism regarding a US debt ceiling deal faded a bit on Friday, with negotiations reaching an impasse. US equities lost some ground (S&P500 -0.1%), while...

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11 May 2023

Global growth worries re-emerge

• Growth worries. Global growth concerns re-emerged after a run of soft data, particularly out of China. Copper is at its lowest since late-November.• Risk off tone. Bond yields fell back & the USD strengthened. The Bank of England hiked again, but questions about how much more it will do remain.• AUD weaker. The negative backdrop has seen the AUD underperform. We expect this challenging environment to remain in place for a while yet. Concerns about global growth picked up overnight following a string of softer than anticipated data, particularly out of China. US equity markets eased modestly (S&P500 -0.2%),...

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08 May 2023

AUD holding firm

• Calmer markets. US equities flat overnight, while oil & base metals edged a bit higher. US bond yields rose, with the AUD hovering just under ~$0.68• No credit crunch. Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey didn’t signal an imminent credit crunch. Rather, conditions are tightening inline with higher rates.• AUD events. Consumer sentiment, Q1 retail sales volumes, China trade data, & the Federal Budget released today. US CPI is out tomorrow night. A relatively quiet and uneventful start to the new week. Following the strong rise on Friday, US equities were flat overnight. By contrast, energy prices added to their...

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02 May 2023

Banking sector worries reemerge

• Risks reemerge. Renewed US banking sector concerns have weighed on risk sentiment. Bond yields, equities & oil prices fell overnight.• AUD volatility. AUD spiked after the ‘surprise’ RBA rate hike, but offshore developments have seen the AUD give back a lot of its gains.• US Fed in focus. Tomorrow’s US Fed meeting is the next major event. Another hike is expected. We think the Fed could push back on expectations rate cuts could start in H2. This could give the USD a boost. The relative calm across markets hasn’t lasted. Risk sentiment soured overnight as concerns about the US...

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