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NZD

16 Apr 2023

Will the USD recovery continue?

• USD rebound. The lift in US inflation expectations and hawkish Fed comments boosted US interest rate pricing and supported the USD.• AUD falls back. The bounce back in the USD has weighed on the AUD. The China data batch is the main AUD event this week.• AUD/NZD edging higher. NZ CPI inflation released later this week. A result close to consensus should reinforce thinking the RBNZ has reached a rate peak. The USD bounced back on Friday, with Thursday’s losses unwound. US economic data and ‘hawkish’ comments from a key Federal Reserve official boosted US interest rate expectations and...

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13 Apr 2023

USD downturn

• USD lower. Weaker US jobless claims and PPI data has reinforced thinking the US Fed is nearing the end of its hiking phase. This has weighed on the USD.• AUD rebound. The weaker USD, positive risk sentiment, and repricing in RBA rate hike expectations following the stronger labour force report have boosted the AUD.• US retail sales in focus. US retail sales are released tonight. Leading indicators point to a softer result. A positive night for risk sentiment, with softer US data supporting expectations the US Fed could be nearing the end of its rate hiking phase. Equities were...

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13 Apr 2023

Australian labour market: As good as it gets

The Australian labour force report is notoriously volatile, and the March data generated yet another, albeit positive, surprise. Employment rose more than anticipated, with 53,000 jobs added in the month. This follows the ~64,000 jobs created in February. The mix was also favorable, with full-time employment leading the way (+72,200 in March). Labour market conditions remain tight. The employment-to-population ratio is historically high (now 64.4%), as is the participation rate, while unemployment is still very low. At 3.5% the unemployment rate remains near the lowest it has been since the early-1970’s. Indeed, on the monthly data going back to 1978,...

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11 Apr 2023

US CPI in focus

• Calm markets. Focus is on tonight’s US CPI. Headline inflation should mechanically slow, but core inflation could remain high. This can support the case for further tightening by the US Fed.• AUD mixed. AUD slightly higher against the USD, but remains under pressure against EUR and GBP as monetary policy outlooks diverge.• NZD underperformer. Despite last week’s larger RBNZ rate hike, NZD has fallen back. Markets are starting to factor in a RBNZ ‘policy mistake’. Markets were relatively calm overnight, with tonight’s US CPI in focus (10:30pm AEST). The US S&P500 ended the day flat, with the tech-focused NASDAQ...

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05 Apr 2023

Recession worries

• Recession worries. Softer US labour and services data has fanned recession fears. Cyclical assets have weakened. US bond yields have fallen.• Firmer USD. The USD has edged up with safe-haven flows counteracting the step down in rate expectations. NZD unwound yesterday’s spike generated by the larger RBNZ rate hike.• AUD/NZD lower. AUD/NZD hit a fresh 2023 low after the RBNZ announcement. We expect AUD/NZD to rebound over the medium-term. The RBNZ’s actions should lead to a meaningful NZ downturn. Markets have remained on the defensive overnight as US recession risks continue to build. US equities slipped back. The S&P500...

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