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NZD

21 Mar 2024

Central banks starting to diverge?

• USD bounce. USD Index recouped yesterday’s post US Fed driven falls. Solid US data & developments in Europe weighed on the major European currencies.• Dovish Europeans. No more members of the BoE are calling for rate hikes. The Swiss National Bank became the first G10 FX central bank to cut this cycle.• AU jobs. Employment jumped & unemployment fell to a multi-month low. Supports our thinking the RBA will lag other central banks in the upcoming easing phase. FX markets have been whipped around a bit over the past couple of sessions on the back of central bank announcements...

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19 Mar 2024

Will the Fed’s ‘dot plot’ change?

• Firmer USD. US equities higher & bond yields a little lower. A higher USD/JPY has boosted the USD. AUD & NZD have shed some more ground.• BoJ & RBA. BoJ hiked rates for the first time since 2007. But markets were underwhelmed. RBA tweaked its forward guidance to more ‘neutral’ language.• US Fed. Focus tomorrow morning will be on the US Fed’s forecasts & guidance. No change to 2024 projections could disappoint ‘hawkish’ expectations. Following a bit of volatility in yesterday’s Asian session after the Bank of Japan changes (and RBA meeting) asset markets were more subdued overnight as...

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17 Mar 2024

Central banks in focus

• Waiting game. Ahead of this week’s key events FX markets consolidated on Friday. USD index tracked sideways. AUD near its 200-day moving average.• Event radar. BoJ, RBA, US Fed, & BoE decisions due this week. China data released today, while NZ GDP & AU jobs due on Thursday.• Central banks. Further bursts of volatility probable. Will the BoJ hike rates for the first time since 2007? Will the US Fed continue to forecast 3 cuts in 2024? With one eye on this week’s central bank meetings global markets largely consolidated on Friday. US bond yields ticked up slightly (the...

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11 Mar 2024

Another US CPI jolt looming?

• Mixed markets. Equities eased a little while bond yields nudged up overnight. Currencies were well contained. AUD consolidated near ~$0.6610.• US CPI. US inflation data in focus tonight. Will the February US CPI data confirm or disprove the January reading as an anomaly?• Expectations matter. Analysts look to be factoring in a greater chance of an upside surprise. This suggests a bigger market reaction could be to a lower print. Markets have had a fairly subdued start to the new week with attention on tonight’s US CPI inflation data (11:30pm AEDT). Global sharemarkets have been mixed. The US S&P500...

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10 Mar 2024

Will the AUD’s upswing continue?

• US jobs. Mixed US jobs report. Payrolls stronger than expected in February, but the underlying detail and downward revisions worked in the opposite direction.• FX trends. USD lost ground last week, with the JPY upswing due to increased BoJ rate hike pricing a factor. AUD had its best week (+1.5%) since mid-December.• Event radar. Globally attention will be on the latest US CPI report (Tues) with retail sales due later in the week. BoJ policy expectations will also be in focus. The latest read on the US labour market came and went on Friday night without generating too much...

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