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JPY

24 Nov 2023

Tryptophan-addled markets move sideways

Currency market liquidity is thinner than a Wegovy patient at a Thanksgiving dinner, with choppy price action leaving most major pairs effectively unchanged relative to Wednesday levels. Equity futures are pointing to a subdued holiday session, ten-year Treasury yields are holding at 4.46 percent, and trade-weighted measures of the dollar are staying stable as traders keep positions square into the weekend. The Japanese yen is holding just north of 149 against the dollar after updated inflation numbers came in slightly below expectations, further diminishing odds on an imminent shift away from the central bank’s easy-money policies. Consumer prices excluding fresh...

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23 Nov 2023

Holiday markets

• Quiet markets. US closed for Thanksgiving. European equities ticked up & bond yields rose. FX moves limited. AUD hovering near multi-month highs.• PMIs. Eurozone & UK PMIs a bit better than expected. Eurozone still in the ‘contraction’ zone but momentum looks to be stabilising.• Data quirks. Locally, retail sales & monthly CPI due next week. We think sales may fall & the CPI indicator may send a false signal. Near-term risks for the AUD. With the US on holiday celebrating Thanksgiving markets have been fairly quiet. This is likely to remain the case today given reduced activity in the...

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22 Nov 2023

RBA’s inflation challenge

• Mixed markets. US equities rose & bond yields edged up slightly. Oil eased back. USD a bit firmer. RBA rhetoric an offset for the AUD.• Volatile data. Weekly US jobless claims data a little better than expected. But some seasonal factors suggest it may not last. Eurozone PMIs due tonight.• RBA speak. Gov. Bullock delivered another speech & comments around inflation sounded hawkish. Diverging policy expectations are AUD supportive. Market volatility picked up slightly overnight as participants reacted to some partial US economic data and looked to lighten positions ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday period. The US and Japan...

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22 Nov 2023

Ranges hold in foreign exchange markets as holiday looms

Currency markets are caught in choppy trading conditions as selling pressure on the US dollar abates ahead of tomorrow’s Thanksgiving holiday. Equity futures are steady, Treasury yields are up modestly on the short end, and oil prices are moving sideways as overall liquidity levels fall. The pound is holding near a two-month high on hawkish verbal support from Bank of England policymakers, and the euro is clinging to the 1.09 threshold against the greenback as traders await new catalysts – perhaps tomorrow’s purchasing manager indices – for a move higher. Although momentum is slowing, both the Chinese yuan and Japanese...

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21 Nov 2023

Steady as she goes

• Consolidation. Positive momentum in equites stalled & bond yields slipped back. USD ticked up a bit, but the AUD remains near the top end of its 3-month range.• US macro. US home sales fell again as tighter conditions bite. FOMC meeting minutes reiterated that they are now in a position to “proceed carefully”• RBA speak. Comments yesterday by Gov. Bullock & the November meeting minutes struck a slightly more ‘hawkish’ tone. Gov. Bullock gives a speech tonight. It has been a rather uneventful night with market moves modest. Positive momentum in US and European equities stalled (S&P500 -0.2%) and...

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