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JPY

Markets Advance as News Flow Ebbs

With the number of US data releases slowing to a trickle and next week’s all-important inflation print looming ahead, risk assets are inching higher, leaving currency markets largely rangebound. Equity futures are advancing while yields come under pressure – translating into a slightly weaker dollar.  Implied volatility levels are coming back down, suggesting that a post-jobs report bounce in yields has helped reset market positioning to more neutral levels – reducing the perceived risk of a big washout around the January consumer price index release. Implied terminal rate expectations are holding between 5.1% and 5.2%, up from the 4.9% area...

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Trend Reversal Rumbles Across Currency Markets

The dollar is continuing its ascent and global markets are in risk-off mode as traders unwind bets on easier monetary policy in the aftermath of Friday’s juggernaut jobs report. Futures are down sharply, Treasury yields are up, the greenback is trading near a three week high, and currencies elsewhere are on the defensive after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added 517,000 jobs to payrolls in January, while revising previous months up. Friday’s data looks too good to be true, with seasonal adjustment issues likely playing a role – but it nonetheless showed that underlying momentum in the...

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Markets Pause for Breath

Markets are eking out a modest recovery after a three-day paroxysm of selling that saw traditional safe haven currencies gain against their risk-sensitive rivals. North American equity futures are inching toward a positive open, Treasury yields are flat, and the dollar is stable. The pound and euro are trapped in listless trading ranges, with no obvious catalysts for movement on the calendar. Recession fears appear to be overtaking monetary tightening expectations in driving market behaviour once again, but yesterday’s newsflow remained broadly supportive of higher rates. Weekly unemployment claims unexpectedly fell, dropping by 15,000 to 190,000, homebuilding activity fell, but...

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Markets Hold Losses as “Bad News is Bad News” Dynamic Returns

Risk appetite remains weaker across the financial markets this morning after a slew of data releases pointed to a slowdown in the world’s largest economy. Equity futures are setting up for more selling at the open, commodity prices are down, and ten-year Treasury yields are back to levels last hit in September. The Canadian dollar is experiencing a bout of round-number bias, clinging to the 1.35 mark after dropping nearly a cent during yesterday’s trading session. According to the latest numbers published yesterday, US retail sales fell a seasonally-adjusted 1.1 percent in December from the prior month, and were revised...

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Much Ado About Nothing Sends Yen Tumbling

Currency markets are settling into new trading ranges after the Bank of Japan defied pressure to change its policy settings, and ahead of data that could shed light on the strength of underlying consumer demand in the world’s largest economy. The greenback is slightly weaker on the day, and is down more than 10 percent from its late-September highs. The yen dropped almost 2 percent last night after the Bank of Japan said it would leave its yield curve control policy unchanged, surprising a small contingent of market participants who were betting on another increase in the target band. Policymakers...

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