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EUR

Soaring US Yields Set Stage for Fed’s ‘Hawkish Hold’

The dollar is trading near a five-month high after data showed US wage growth accelerating, further reducing market odds on rate cuts this year. Yesterday’s update in the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of wage growth saw the Employment Cost Index accelerate to the fastest pace in a year, adding to last week’s inflation data in forcing markets to question whether the central bank will be able to lower interest rates from what it currently sees as restrictive levels. Two-year Treasury yields are holding above the 5 percent threshold and traders are now pricing in just a single rate cut in...

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US Fed in the spotlight

• Market turbulence. Stronger US wage data pushed up US yields & dampened the risk sentiment. The stronger USD has seen the AUD fall back.• Regional data. Sluggish China PMIs & downside surprise in AU retail sales also weighed on the AUD. Some heat has come out of RBA rate hike bets.• Fed focus. US Fed decision/press conference the next major events. A ‘hawkish hold’ looks likely, but rate expectations already look to have moved that way. A bout of turbulence overnight with stronger than expected US wages and negative signals from business and consumer surveys dampening the mood. The...

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Fed Fears Dampen Market Enthusiasm

Traders are moving onto a more cautious footing today as the prospect of a ‘hawkish hold’ at tomorrow’s Federal Reserve meeting comes into view. The dollar is trading on a modestly weaker footing against the yen and euro, but is maintaining strength relative to most other majors as interest rate differentials continue to provide lift. The Canadian dollar is softening ahead of a much-awaited gross domestic product report. Yields were left unmoved yesterday afternoon after the Treasury said it would borrow more than expected over the coming quarter. According to its updated quarterly refunding plans, the federal government will issue...

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JPY shenanigans

• JPY vol. USD/JPY dropped sharply yesterday. Intervention hasn’t been officially confirmed. Risk of action to prop up the weak JPY remains elevated.• AUD rise. AUD continues to grind higher. AUD is now more than 3% from its Israel/Iran risk aversion lows. China PMIs & AU retail sales due today.• Global data. Tonight, Eurozone GDP/CPI & the US Employment Cost Index (a broad wages gauge monitored by the US Fed) are released. It has been a relatively quiet start to the new week for most markets, with positive risk vibes continuing and swings in the JPY getting the most attention....

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Yen Rollercoaster Accelerates

The Japanese yen is stabilising after an extraordinarily-turbulent session. With markets closed for the Golden Week holiday, the exchange rate briefly crashed through the 160-per-dollar threshold for the first time since 1990, and then reversed almost five big figures higher when rumours of central bank intervention hit the wires early this morning – generating a total intra-day move that was the widest since December 2022, and among the top 20 dollar-yen trading ranges in modern history. Official confirmation hasn’t yet been provided, and evidence of the traditional “rate checking” activity from the Bank of Japan is lacking thus far, but...

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