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EUR

29 Jun 2025

US jobs in focus

• Holding on. Pockets of volatility on Friday but on net US equities & bond yields rose. EUR continues to climb. AUD drifted a little lower.• US macro. Consumer spending fell. Some signs of tariff impacts on US inflation. Has the uncertainty flowed through to the US jobs market?• Event Radar. China PMIs today. Annual ECB conference & EZ inflation due this week. US jobs report scheduled (Thurs night AEST) ahead of US holiday. Global Trends Markets were whipsawed a little during Friday’s trade by a couple of tariff related developments and US economic releases. Risk sentiment temporarily soured a...

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27 Jun 2025

Markets Turn Cautious As US Consumer Spending Engine Slows

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure came in slightly hotter than expected in May—lending support to the central bank’s cautious approach—but personal spending levels missed forecasts, pointing to a more profound slowdown ahead. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.2 percent from the prior month, topping market forecasts for a 0.1-percent increase. On a year-over-year basis, core price growth sped up to 2.7 percent, also exceeding economist estimates for a 2.6 percent advance, and the prior month’s increase was revised up to 2.5 percent. The overall personal consumption...

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26 Jun 2025

USD losing altitude

• US trends. Outlook for US rate cuts supported sentiment & exerted more pressure on the USD. AUD at the top of its multi-month range.• Macro forces. Patchy US growth & signs the labour market is loosening. Reports also indicate Pres. Trump may name the next Fed Chair early.• USD downtrend. Various factors continue to move against the USD. There will be bumps along the way but we see the USD weakening over time. Global Trends The de-escalation of the situation in the Middle East has seen investors quickly refocus their attention on US macro trends. The run of US...

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26 Jun 2025

“Shadow Fed Chair” Fears Drive Dollar Lower

The dollar is trading near a three-year low and Treasury yields are down across the curve after a report suggested that Donald Trump could appoint the next Federal Reserve chair early in an attempt to push interest rates in a more favourable direction. According to the Wall Street Journal, frustration with the central bank’s easing trajectory has led the president to consider naming a successor to Jerome Powell in the coming months, with Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Kevin Hassett, Scott Bessent, and David Malpass all emerging as potential contenders for a role that would be expected to steer the central...

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25 Jun 2025

USD pressure points

• Mixed fortunes. US equities & bonds consolidated, while USD remains on backfoot. EUR & GBP near cyclical highs. AUD & NZD a little firmer.• USD trends. Fundamental forces continue to undermine the USD. It won’t be a straight line but we think these trends may continue for a while yet.• AU CPI. Monthly inflation slowed more than forecast. RBA likely to cut interest rates again in early-July. However, this is largely priced in. Global Trends Some mixed fortunes across financial markets overnight, though on net the moves have been modest. In contrast to the solid rise across Asian equities...

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