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EUR

09 Oct 2025

Currency markets enter consolidation mode

Currencies outside the US are in consolidation mode. The Japanese yen is holding near the 153 threshold as traders turn more sceptical on the Takaichi administration’s capacity for delivering fiscal and monetary stimulus, the euro is treading water in line with an ebbing in French political headlines, and the British pound is inching higher amid a lack of domestic rate catalysts. The Canadian dollar—stuck in a narrow technical trading range for days—is moving sideways ahead of a speech from Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers, and the Mexican peso is pushing higher as optimism surrounding trade relations with the...

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08 Oct 2025

Dollar recovery extends

The dollar is steamrolling over its major counterparts again this morning as investors unwind exposures in other jurisdictions and pile into bets on continued gains in American equity markets. The trade-weighted greenback is up around a quarter-percent from yesterday’s North American close, Treasury yields are slipping across the front end of the curve, and stock market futures are pointing to another advance at the open. Japan’s yen is still tumbling, helping support global liquidity conditions. Shinzo Abe disciple Sanae Takaichi’s win in the weekend’s Liberal Democratic Party leadership election has unleashed a surge in speculative pressure against the currency, pushing...

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07 Oct 2025

Markets rally on AI hopes, yen continues its descent

Investors are making up for a lack of actual intelligence on the state of the economy by betting on artificial intelligence instead. The dollar is attracting inflows, mid-curve Treasury yields are pushing higher, and equity futures are pointing to further gains at the open after OpenAI and Advanced Micro Devices yesterday announced they would collaborate to build AI data centres, with the ChatGPT maker agreeing to buy tens of billions of dollars’ worth of chips from AMD while taking a 10-percent stake in the chipmaker over time. The euro is consolidating around lower levels as the dust settles after French...

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06 Oct 2025

Japanese market jolt

• Push-pull forces. US shutdown still in place. Geopolitics outside US generates some vol. EUR & JPY lose ground. AUD & NZD edge up a little.• Japan politics. Shock leadership selection jolted Japanese markets. Nikkei surged & JPY weakened on prospect of fewer rate hikes & fiscal stimulus.• RBNZ meeting. RBNZ expected to cut rates tomorrow. Debate is on the size with markets split between a 25bp & 50bp move. NZD volatility anticipated. Global Trends The US Government Shutdown, which kicked off at the start of October, remains firmly in place and there appears to be little movement from either...

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06 Oct 2025

Political turmoil plays havoc with currency markets, boosts dollar

The dollar is again winning the cleanest-dirty-shirt contest this morning as mounting political turmoil in Japan and the euro area casts a pall over currency markets. The yen is down almost 2 percent and Japanese equity markets are soaring after Sanae Takaichi unexpectedly triumphed in the Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership race, defying polls that had put her rival, Shinjiro Koizumi, ahead among party grandees. Investors believe Takaichi—an advocate of looser fiscal and monetary policy in the mould of Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics”—could seek to unleash fresh government stimulus while pressing the Bank of Japan to pause its tightening. Options markets have...

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