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EUR

24 Nov 2025

Risk appetite turns fragile, markets reverse some gains

The dollar is slipping from its highs, Treasury yields are inching lower, and stock market indices are retrenching as investors trim exposures to the technology sector amid an ongoing retreat from speculative asset classes. With US markets closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and likely thinly-populated on Black Friday, traders are working to compress position adjustments into the first three days of the week, and price action is accelerating across the foreign exchange markets, extending a broader rise in measures of implied volatility. Expectations for a cut at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting jumped spectacularly on Friday morning, weakening the...

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23 Nov 2025

Market swings continue

• Positive vibes. Increased odds of a December US Fed rate cut boosted sentiment. US equities rose. AUD & NZD ticked higher on Friday.• AU/NZ events. RBNZ expected to cut rates again (Weds). Most are predicting a 25bp move. First full monthly CPI inflation report out in Australia (Weds).• Event Radar. In the US shutdown delayed retail sales & PPI data due (Tues night AEDT). Thanksgiving holidays may impact liquidity later in the week. Global Trends Intra-session market swings continued Friday, in line with the erratic daily gyrations that have been coming through recently. The zig-zag pattern in US equities...

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20 Nov 2025

Shaky ground

• Risk wobbles. Positive sentiment after the Nvidia earnings report faded. US equities declined, as did bond yields. AUD & NZD lost ground.• US jobs. Delayed US jobs data showed stronger payrolls but also higher unemployment. Odds of a December US Fed rate cut have declined.• Data flow. Global PMIs & Fed members speaking today. Because of shutdown backlog Fed won’t have another jobs report before mid-December meeting. Global Trends Risk appetite continues to swing around with another burst of volatility coming through overnight. The positive vibes stemming from yesterday’s corporate earnings report from tech-powerhouse Nvidia faded. Broader sentiment changed...

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20 Nov 2025

Dollar climbs ahead of non-farm payrolls

Currency markets are holding steady after an extremely busy session that saw odds on a December rate cut plunge, helping the dollar post its best daily performance in almost two months. Benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are holding near 4.14 percent—up almost three basis points from yesterday—equity futures are setting up for gains at the open, and the euro, yen, and Canadian dollar are all trading defensively against the greenback ahead of the delayed September jobs report in half an hour. Minutes taken during the Federal Reserve’s late-October get-together showed policymakers turning more hawkish than markets had anticipated, further lowering the...

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17 Nov 2025

Dollar inches higher as post-shutdown trading dynamics assert themselves

Foreign exchange markets are trading on a mixed footing this morning as the US government data backlog begins to clear and investors brace for a series of critical corporate earnings releases. Equity futures are pointing to a firmer open (although this may be a Pavlovian response to a ten-week winning streak on Mondays), and benchmark Treasury yields are creeping up ahead of appearances from Fed officials including Governors Jefferson and Waller later today. The dollar is outperforming pro-cyclical currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars, holding its own against the British pound and euro—which are clinging to technical resistance levels...

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