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EUR

26 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Slips as Traders Prepare for One Last Summer Squall

Across the financial markets, traders are battening down the hatches in preparation for a stormy reaction to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole later this morning. Ten-year Treasury yields are up, equity indices are returning some of yesterday’s gains. The dollar is trading on a slightly weaker footing – up against the pound and the Mexican peso, down against the euro, yen, yuan, and loonie. Traders think Powell will reiterate a data-dependent policy stance, leaving expectations for the September meeting essentially unmoved. Although the Fed chair’s thoughts on current economic conditions will be carefully analyzed, there will...

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24 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Slowing US Economy Weighs on Dollar

The dollar is holding steady after yesterday’s data showing a slowing in momentum across the world’s biggest economy. Business activity fell further into contractionary territory in early August, according to S&P’s composite purchasing managers index, which showed a second month of weakness in manufacturing and the all-important services sector. Data from the Census Bureau showed new-home sales falling to an annualized 511,000 in July – the lowest in six years, and well below expectations for a 575,000 gain. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected shrug this off in Jackson Hole on Friday, saying that the economy remains strong, with...

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23 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Steamrolls Rivals Ahead of Powell Speech

Global markets are bowing before the almighty dollar once more as investors brace for Friday’s central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Every major US equity index ended yesterday in the red, commodities are down again, and risk-sensitive currencies are in retreat. Markets think Mr. Powell will assert the Federal Reserve’s intent to lift rates into restrictive territory – and keep them at those levels – in Friday’s speech. Terminal Fed Funds expectations have shot up from 3.25 percent in late July to 3.75 percent now, and implied rate cuts have fallen by more than a third as investors have...

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16 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Keeps Rising. We Don’t Know Why.

The dollar is climbing for a second day, but coherent explanations for the move are in short supply. One could argue that investors are clinging to safe havens as the prospect of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy darkens the outlook, but China’s peculiar growth model means it subtracts net demand from the rest of the world, and commodity-linked and growth-sensitive currencies appear to be holding ground so far. Europe is relatively quiet. The pound exhibited no discernible reaction earlier this morning on signs of cooling in the British labour market, and the euro remains under pressure on news...

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11 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Markets Consolidate After Spectacular Rally

The most politically-incorrect word in economics is back. Mentions of “transitory” inflation have come into vogue again after yesterday’s data showed headline prices were unchanged in July after rising every month for the last two years, with the core measure also rising by less than expected. Market participants are increasingly convinced the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of hikes, lowering long-term rates and making monetary conditions more accommodative. Last week’s tightening in financial conditions has largely reversed, with yields back to pre-non-farm payrolls levels and the dollar dramatically weaker against most of its major rivals. The greenback slipped as...

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