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Israeli Shekel Snapshot

Exhibit 1

US household spending remains remarkably strong.

Personal consumption expenditures, nominal and real (chained 2012 dollars), billions USD

Exhibit 2

Labour market conditions are tight.

Initial unemployment claims, thousands

Exhibit 3

Core inflation is subsiding too slowly.

All Items, Core (All Items Excluding Food and Energy), Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, Annual Change, %, SA

Exhibit 4

And financial conditions are stabilizing.

Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index

Exhibit 5

Rate expectations are climbing.

Target rate probabilities by meeting.

Exhibit 6

Across the front end.

Futures-implied policy rate by meeting date, %

Exhibit 7

And the dollar is regaining ground.

DXY Dollar Index, 1973 = 100

Exhibit 8

The Israeli economy is also performing well.

Estimated gross domestic product growth, annual change, %

Exhibit 9

Markets expect the BOI rate to hit 5%.

All-items consumer price index, annual % change vs. 1-year swap rate

Exhibit 10

But political uncertainty is hobbling the shekel.

120-day rolling correlation, USDILS and Nasdaq Composite

Exhibit 11

Forwards have outperformed spot 64% of the time.

Spot vs. outright 12-month forward rate, advanced 12 months

Exhibit 12

And volatility expectations are likely to remain elevated.

3-month at-the-money option implied volatility

Oil prices resume climb, inflation fears stalk global bond markets
6 hours ago
US inflation pulse reawakening
18 hours ago
The shekel paradox
22 hours ago
US inflation slightly exceeds expectations, underpinning the dollar
1 day ago
Dollar grinds higher as inflation data looms and oil prices rise
1 day ago
US-Iran negotiations fall apart—again—leading to reversal in currency markets
2 days ago

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