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Exhibit 1

Spending remains remarkably strong.

Personal consumption expenditures, nominal and real (chained 2012 dollars), billions USD

Exhibit 2

Core inflation is subsiding too slowly.

All Items, Core (All Items Excluding Food and Energy), Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, Annual Change, %, SA

Exhibit 3

Financial conditions are stabilizing.

Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index

Exhibit 4

Payrolls look unlikely to crumble.

Initial unemployment claims, thousands

Exhibit 5

Rate expectations are climbing.

Target rate probabilities by meeting.

Exhibit 6

Across the front end.

Futures-implied policy rate by meeting date, %

Exhibit 7

Differentials are putting the yen under pressure.

Indicative 12-Month USDJPY Forward Points

Exhibit 8

Sentiment is shifting on the euro.

Net Long (+) or Short (-) Euro Futures Position Held by Large Speculators, Billions US Dollars

Exhibit 9

Stagflation risks are haunting the pound.

Real average weekly earnings, total pay, annual change, %

Exhibit 10

The Canadian economy should continue decelerating.

Real gross domestic product, monthly change, %

Exhibit 11

And the dollar is regaining ground.

DXY Dollar Index, 1973 = 100

Exhibit 12

But continued equity outperformance could provide some loonie support.

90-day rolling correlations with CADUSD

USD doldrums continue
Canadian jobs growth tops expectations, but details point to slowdown ahead
The peso’s bull run has run out of steam.
The fiscal outlook still looks favourable.
Canada's economy is slowing.
Nearshoring hopes look overdone.