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Euro Snapshot

Exhibit 1

Speculators are heavily long euro.

Net Long (+) or Short (-) Futures Position Held by Large Speculators, Billions US Dollars

Exhibit 2

Europe's terms of trade shock has almost fully reversed.

Citi Terms of Trade Indices, % change from January 3, 2020

Exhibit 3

Economic surprise indices are diverging to a dangerous degree.

Bloomberg Economic Surprise Indices

Exhibit 4

China's not riding to the rescue.

Annual change in M2 money supply, %

Exhibit 5

Inflation is rolling over.

All Items, Annual Change, %, SA

Exhibit 6

Policy forecasts are coming down.

Implied change in policy rate, %

Exhibit 7

Terminal rate expectations are converging.

Implied policy rates, December 2023, %

Exhibit 8

Rate differentials are stabilizing.

Indicative 12-Month EURUSD Forward Points

Exhibit 9

US consumers may have more dry powder than we thought.

Mortgage origination volume by purpose, billions USD

Exhibit 10

Modest gains are possible, but the longer-term outlook isn't terribly bright.

Estimated EURUSD Expiration Range By Confidence Interval

Exhibit 11

And options markets are exhibiting signs of complacency.

Implied at-the-money option volatility

Oil & 'hawkish' Fed rattle nerves
6 hours ago
Market caution returns as US plans extended Iran blockade
17 hours ago
Dollar rises as Iran headlines, policy decisions, and earnings reports intersect
1 day ago
Hopeful markets
2 days ago
Markets retreat as battle lines in Mideast conflict harden
6 days ago
Confused Iran headlines keep markets hemmed in
1 week ago

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Latest Analysis

All Commentary
Oil & 'hawkish' Fed rattle nerves
29 April, 2026
• Market wobbles. Jump in oil & ‘hawkish’ vibes from US Fed rattled investors. USD firmer. AUD & NZD lost ground. AUD underperforms on crosses.• AU CPI. Inflation accelerates, but not...
Market caution returns as US plans extended Iran blockade
29 April, 2026
Oil benchmarks and the dollar are extending yesterday’s gains after the Wall Street Journal said US president Donald Trump is preparing to maintain an indefinite blockade against Iranian shipping, rather...
Dollar rises as Iran headlines, policy decisions, and earnings reports intersect
28 April, 2026
Good morning. The dollar is advancing and Brent crude prices are back above $110 a barrel as the US and Iran fail to make meaningful progress toward a deal that might relieve strain on global energy markets....
Hopeful markets
27 April, 2026
• Upbeat vibes. Reports Iran proposed reopening Strait of Hormuz supported sentiment. Equities rose. AUD near top of its range. But oil markets sceptical.• Event radar. US/Iran still in focus. Australian...
Markets retreat as battle lines in Mideast conflict harden
23 April, 2026
Financial markets are back in risk-off mode as Middle East peace talks show signs of stalling, with both sides continuing to enforce blockades on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude is holding...
Confused Iran headlines keep markets hemmed in
22 April, 2026
Good morning. Markets are struggling to find direction as conflicting signals on the war in Iran leave traders rudderless. Vice President JD Vance yesterday postponed a trip to Pakistan after Iranian officials...
Will they or won't they
21 April, 2026
• Market wobbles. Fears of a re-escalation in Iran dampened sentiment overnight. President Trump extended the ceasefire this morning.• FX moves. USD firmer due to higher oil & strong US retail sales....
US consumer spending stays strong, supporting yields and the dollar
21 April, 2026
American households seemingly remained undaunted by the war in Iran last month, spending more than expected even as measures of consumer sentiment plunged to historic lows. According to figures published...
Markets stumble as Iran conflict reignites
20 April, 2026
Good morning. The dollar is inching higher and risk appetite is faltering after Tehran attacked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz while the US maintained its blockade of Iranian ports and seized an Iranian-flagged...
Open, Shut Them
19 April, 2026
• Ongoing uncertainty. Weekend news the Strait of Hormuz has been closed dampened sentiment. USD a bit firmer. AUD gives back some ground.• Volatile situation. More twists & turns likely. Impact on...

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