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Exhibit 1

Speculators are heavily long euro.

Net Long (+) or Short (-) Futures Position Held by Large Speculators, Billions US Dollars

Exhibit 2

Europe's terms of trade shock has almost fully reversed.

Citi Terms of Trade Indices, % change from January 3, 2020

Exhibit 3

Economic surprise indices are diverging to a dangerous degree.

Bloomberg Economic Surprise Indices

Exhibit 4

China's not riding to the rescue.

Annual change in M2 money supply, %

Exhibit 5

Inflation is rolling over.

All Items, Annual Change, %, SA

Exhibit 6

Policy forecasts are coming down.

Implied change in policy rate, %

Exhibit 7

Terminal rate expectations are converging.

Implied policy rates, December 2023, %

Exhibit 8

Rate differentials are stabilizing.

Indicative 12-Month EURUSD Forward Points

Exhibit 9

US consumers may have more dry powder than we thought.

Mortgage origination volume by purpose, billions USD

Exhibit 10

Modest gains are possible, but the longer-term outlook isn't terribly bright.

Estimated EURUSD Expiration Range By Confidence Interval

Exhibit 11

And options markets are exhibiting signs of complacency.

Implied at-the-money option volatility

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