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30 May 2023

30 May 2023

Will the China PMIs underwhelm?

• Shaky sentiment. US debt ceiling yet to be fully put to bed. US & European confidence weakened, a sign the global downturn is gathering pace.• Currency concerns. JPY weakness has seen officials fire a shot across the bow of markets. A lower currency makes the inflation fight harder.• AUD events. Today, RBA Governor Lowe speaks, the monthly CPI indicator is released, and the China PMIs are due. Some negative vibes across markets as the US and UK returned to work after their long weekend. The US debt ceiling has yet to be fully put to bed. While the in-principle...

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30 May 2023

Weekly Market Update

Exhibit 1 Spending remains remarkably strong. Personal consumption expenditures, nominal and real (chained 2012 dollars), billions USD Exhibit 2 Core inflation is subsiding too slowly. All Items, Core (All Items Excluding Food and Energy), Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, Annual Change, %, SA Exhibit 3 Financial conditions are stabilizing. Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index Exhibit 4 Payrolls look unlikely to crumble. Initial unemployment claims, thousands Exhibit 5 Rate expectations are climbing. Target rate probabilities by meeting. Exhibit 6 Across the front end. Futures-implied policy rate by meeting date, % Exhibit 7 Differentials are putting the yen under pressure. Indicative 12-Month USDJPY Forward...

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30 May 2023

Bulls Return Ahead of Vote on Debt Deal

A slow-motion relief rally continues to unfold across the financial markets as President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy make progress toward garnering the bipartisan support needed to pass this weekend’s debt limit deal. Equity futures are setting up for a strong open, Treasury yields are lower across the front and belly of the curve, and risk-sensitive currencies are climbing against the dollar. Many investors remain wary: some of the proposed bill’s embedded provisions are expected to take a toll on growth, and the Treasury’s renewed funding efforts are seen subtracting from overall market liquidity. We suspect these fears are...

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