Explore the world.

Assess underlying market conditions and fundamentals in the world's major economies.

World
Global
Americas
United States
Canada
Mexico
Europe
Euro Area
United Kingdom
Asia Pacific
China
Japan
Australia

Stay ahead.

Follow the biggest stories in markets and economics in real time.

Analysis
Blog
Forecasts
Calendar

Subscribe

Get insight into the latest trends and developments in global currency markets with breaking news updates and research reports delivered right to your inbox.

After signing up, you will receive regular newsletters from Corpay, and may unsubscribe at any time. View Corpay’s Privacy Policy

Blog
Forecasts
Calendar

Weekly Market Update June 5

Exhibit 1

Recession fears are subsiding.

Bloomberg US Economic Surprise Index

Exhibit 2

Rate cut expectations are moving into 2024.

Treasury Yields, %

Exhibit 3

A long-expected growth rotation is firmly underway.

Purchasing Manager Indices

Exhibit 4

Saudi Arabia is working to bring oil markets into "balance" around $80.

Production volumes, millions barrels per day

Exhibit 5

Oil shorts aren't "ouching" yet.

Global benchmark prices, USD per barrel

Exhibit 6

Margins of safety are widening.

OPEC spare capacity, million barrels a day

Exhibit 7

But observers expect further tightness.

Consensus forecasts vs. implied forward prices, USD per barrel

Exhibit 8

Real estate markets are overheating.

Existing home sales, monthly change, %

Exhibit 9

Growth imbalances are reemerging.

Change in real gross domestic product relative to January 2000, %

Exhibit 10

A hike is now fully priced in.

Implied policy rate, %

Unemployment & the RBA
1 day ago
Iran hopes lift risk appetite, but conviction remains low
1 day ago
The world's most crowded trade
2 days ago
Risk appetite improves ahead of Nvidia earnings
2 days ago
AUD still on the backfoot
3 days ago
Markets turn cautious as Iran uncertainties remain
3 days ago

Subscribe

Get insight into the latest trends and developments in global currency markets with breaking news updates and research reports delivered right to your inbox.

Latest Analysis

All Commentary
Unemployment & the RBA
21 May, 2026
• Market swings. Conflicting US/Iran reports generated volatility. US equities a bit higher. USD whipped around. Local/offshore factors push/pulled the AUD.• AU jobs. Weak jobs report in April. Employment...
Iran hopes lift risk appetite, but conviction remains low
21 May, 2026
Good morning. In subdued trading, oil prices are extending their decline, equities are advancing, Treasury yields are easing from recent highs, and currency markets remain dormant after President Trump...
The world's most crowded trade
20 May, 2026
This afternoon’s first-quarter results from Nvidia are unlikely to cool the artificial intelligence frenzy. In nominal terms, net income almost certainly grew to a level no public company has ever...
Risk appetite improves ahead of Nvidia earnings
20 May, 2026
A bruising multi-day selloff in government bonds is showing signs of exhaustion this morning as investors train attention on Nvidia’s first-quarter results after the closing bell—an event that has...
AUD still on the backfoot
19 May, 2026
• Market wobbles. Inflation concerns & rising bond yields dampen sentiment. USD firmer. AUD & NZD underperform. AUD now ~2.2% from recent high.• Data flow. UK CPI inflation out today. FOMC minutes...
Markets turn cautious as Iran uncertainties remain
19 May, 2026
Good morning. Oil prices are edging lower and the dollar is strengthening after President Trump said he had suspended a planned bombardment of Iran, leaving market hopes for a reopening of the Strait of...
Risk wobbles weigh on the AUD
17 May, 2026
• Inflation worries. Higher oil prices & central bank rethink push up bond yields. Equities dipped on Friday. USD firmer. AUD & NZD fall back.• Macro pulse. Concerns about the global economy &...
US Fed shifting course?
14 May, 2026
• US data. Solid US retail sales underpinned sentiment. Upshift in US interest rate expectations & weaker GBP boosted the USD. AUD slipped back.• Macro pulse. Markets toying with the idea the US Fed...
Yuan step at a time
14 May, 2026
It has become a cliché to say that America and China operate on entirely different historical timescales—but sometimes clichés contain a grain of truth. As Donald Trump meets Xi Jinping this week, talk...
Trading ranges compress as newsflow slows
14 May, 2026
Good morning. Price action in currency markets is slowing to a crawl and the dollar is consolidating yesterday’s gains as traders keep their powder dry amid a lack of clear directional catalysts. Brent...

Data

Global
United States
Canada
Mexico
Euro Area
China
United Kingdom
Japan
Australia

Analysis

Blog
Forecasts
Calendar

About

Contact

Data and information on this website is provided “as is” and for informational purposes only. Information on the website does not bind Corpay in any way; nor is it not intended as advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial products. Data and other information are not warranted as to completeness or accuracy and are subject to change without notice. All charts or graphs are from publicly available sources, or our proprietary data. Nothing in this material should be construed as investment, financial, tax, legal, accounting, regulatory or other advice or as creating a fiduciary relationship. Corpay disclaims any responsibility or liability to the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, for any loss or damage arising from any reliance on our use of the data in any way. You should contact your Corpay sales representative for clarification on the range of financial instruments available in your jurisdiction. Copyright Cambridge Mercantile Corp. 2022.