Search
Close this search box.

Explore the world.

Assess underlying market conditions and fundamentals in the world's major economies.

World

Stay ahead.

Follow the biggest stories in markets and economics in real time.

Subscribe

Get insight into the latest trends and developments in global currency markets with breaking news updates and research reports delivered right to your inbox.

After signing up, you will receive regular newsletters from Corpay, and may unsubscribe at any time. View Corpay’s Privacy Policy

Weekly Market Update June 5

Exhibit 1

Recession fears are subsiding.

Bloomberg US Economic Surprise Index

Exhibit 2

Rate cut expectations are moving into 2024.

Treasury Yields, %

Exhibit 3

A long-expected growth rotation is firmly underway.

Purchasing Manager Indices

Exhibit 4

Saudi Arabia is working to bring oil markets into "balance" around $80.

Production volumes, millions barrels per day

Exhibit 5

Oil shorts aren't "ouching" yet.

Global benchmark prices, USD per barrel

Exhibit 6

Margins of safety are widening.

OPEC spare capacity, million barrels a day

Exhibit 7

But observers expect further tightness.

Consensus forecasts vs. implied forward prices, USD per barrel

Exhibit 8

Real estate markets are overheating.

Existing home sales, monthly change, %

Exhibit 9

Growth imbalances are reemerging.

Change in real gross domestic product relative to January 2000, %

Exhibit 10

A hike is now fully priced in.

Implied policy rate, %

Currency Market Mean Reversion Continues, Weakening Dollar
Trump 2.0 & the AUD
Cool your jets
Fed Delivers Quarter-Point Cut, Arguably Adopts Less-Dovish Tone
Trump Trade Eases, Dollar Retreats
Trump 2.0