• Positive tone. Sentiment improved overnight. US equities rebounded. Bond yields rose. Oil fell. AUD ticked up thanks to some relative outperformance.• Data flow. Limited releases today. Next week things pick up with China GDP (Mon), AU jobs (Thurs), PMIs (Fri), BoJ (Fri), & US PCE (Fri) due. Global Trends Geopolitical related headlines generated a few minor bursts of volatility across a couple...

Good morning. Currency markets have slipped back into extremely tight ranges as geopolitical fears recede and incoming data point to “Goldilocks” conditions across much of the advanced world. Realised volatility across asset classes remains exceptionally low, and implied volatility measures show investors are unworried about shocks: the VIX has fallen well below traditional fear thresholds, the MOVE*...

Good morning. After a series of early-week distractions, currency market drivers are shifting back toward economic fundamentals today, with mixed US data keeping yields within tight ranges and the Japanese yen becoming a key focal point ahead of a potential snap election. Equity futures are setting up for a negative open after modest losses in yesterday’s session, Treasury yields are holding firm across...

Consumer price growth accelerated by slightly less than expected in the United States last month, helping lower short-term yields and putting downward pressure on the dollar. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—rose 0.2 percent in December from the prior month, and was up 2.6 percent...

• Headline noise. Markets continue to take geopolitical/macro developments in stride. US equities rose overnight. AUD ticked higher.• US Fed. Investigation into Fed Chair Powell raises concerns about central bank independence. US CPI out tonight. US retail sales due later this week.• AU data. Household spending firmer than expected. AU jobs data (22 Jan) & Q4 CPI (28 Jan) important for RBA. A February...

The US dollar, Treasuries, and stock market indices are all trading slightly lower this morning after the Trump administration stepped up its assault on the Federal Reserve, launching a criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell’s management of a headquarters renovation project. According to a highly unusual video statement published last night, the Chair said he had received grand jury subpoenas...

The Trump administration sharply intensified its assault on the Federal Reserve’s independence this evening, threatening a fundamental cornerstone of the international monetary and financial system—and a key factor underpinning the dollar’s global dominance. According to multiple news sources and officials themselves, US prosecutors today served the central bank with grand jury subpoenas and a threat...

The US economy generated fewer jobs than anticipated, but the unemployment rate declined last month, giving the Federal Reserve room to slow the pace of monetary easing over the course of 2026. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 50,000 jobs were added in December, undershooting a consensus forecast set around the 70,000 mark, and the previous two months were revised down by 76,000 positions....

Happy Thursday. The dollar is extending its advance for a third session after yesterday’s data underscored the US economy’s resilience, denting bearish conviction. Most major currency pairs remain rangebound, with the pound, euro and yen all holding broadly neutral technical positions against the greenback. Treasury yields are slightly higher, while equity markets are set to open a bit lower as investors...

Good morning, and feel free to hit the snooze button. Financial markets are back to ignoring geopolitical headlines, with most major currency pairs exhibiting rangebound behaviour, Treasury yields flatlining, and equity futures setting up for an incremental retreat at the open. Investors are ignoring the latest threats against Greenland from the White House*, and are downplaying signs of growing friction...